\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Create a full stack solution and open the era of electric intelligence. Thanks to SAIC's forward-looking strategic layout, SAIC has formed a super matrix in terms of electrification and intelligence. The company has set up a number of innovative enterprises to build a new engine for transformation. In terms of electrification, the three electric technologies cover a wide range, mainly including SAIC Jieneng in the power system of new energy vehicles and hydrogen technology in the field of hydrogen energy and fuel cells. In the field of intellectualization, we focus on the development of cloud management end integrated full stack solutions, mainly including: zhonghaiting (high-precision map), SAIC zero beam (building a "zero beam Galaxy 4 + 1" scene service platform), Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) (development of automatic driving controller) and investing in momenta to build a cooperation ecosystem with technology leaders such as Alibaba, Mobileye, Huawei, NVIDIA, Alibaba and Tencent.
L + R enables technological transformation and improves the medium and high-end layout of independent brands. In January 2021, the company, together with Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co.Ltd(600895) , Alibaba, set up Yuanjie fund investment project L. Zhiji automobile will adopt a new organizational structure and operation mode, pay attention to Internet technology and intelligent experience, face the innovative needs of consumers, and promote social sales mode. L7, the first model targeted at high-end pure electric car, is expected to be mass produced this year, and LS7, a high-end pure electric SUV, is expected to be launched by the end of the year. In October 2021, the company established Feifan automobile to separate the R brand, and Feifan operated in a market-oriented manner with light assets. The development route of R automobile is electric vehicle + intelligence, and adopts the marketing mode of "boundless new retail". "R" brand will complement "L" project. As a new power state-owned enterprise brand, R brand focuses on differentiation route, while Zhiji automobile locates high-end luxury brand and improves the medium and high-end layout of the company's own brand.
The new end continues to improve, and there are opportunities for independent brands to reshape their valuation Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) has made steady progress in the transformation of electric intelligence. A number of new energy models of independent brands have been launched one after another. The performance of the new end continues to improve, the sales volume is expected to increase rapidly, and the bottom of profitability and valuation is expected to rise. In terms of electrification, build an independent electric vehicle brand, make the new energy product line clearer, continuously improve the independent ability of the three power core technologies, and accelerate the layout and development of new energy models; In terms of intelligence, we will gradually realize the industrialization of various core technologies. Based on the cloud pipe end full stack solution, the Zhiji L7 equipped with zebra Zhixing Venus system will be mass produced this year.
Profit forecast and Valuation: it is estimated that the total sales volume of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 546 / 613 / 673 million, the operating revenue will be 731 / 8522 / 935.7 billion yuan (- 1% / + 16% / + 10%), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 255 / 264 / 30.3 billion yuan (+ 25% / 4% / 14%, compared with 272 / 299 / 32 billion yuan in the previous forecast), and the EPS will be 2.18/2.26/2.59 yuan respectively. Through multi angle valuation, the one-year (2023) target valuation is 21-23 yuan (the previous target valuation was 26-31 yuan in 2022), maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sales decline and gross profit decline caused by fierce competition, the risk of new models climbing less than expected, policy risk and the risk of raw material price rise.
