\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 079 Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.Ltd(600079) )
Key investment points:
Anesthesia industry leader, focusing on the main pharmaceutical industry
Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.Ltd(600079) is the leader of narcotic drugs, and the main product is fentanyl narcotic analgesics. Thanks to the driving of comfortable diagnosis and treatment demand on anesthesia and the strategy of self refocusing and focusing on the main pharmaceutical industry, the net profit deducted from non return parent increased by 42% / 49% respectively in q1-3 of 2020 / 2021, realizing rapid growth.
The scale of the narcotic drug industry is growing rapidly and the competition pattern is good
We estimate that the market scale of narcotic drugs will be about 5.2 billion in 2020, and the CAGR of the industry scale growth from 2015 to 2019 will be 14%. Benefiting from the natural growth of surgery volume, the continuous aging of population and the demand of multiple departments driven by comfortable diagnosis and treatment, the industry is expected to maintain sustained and stable growth. The market entry rate of new drugs is far lower than that of fd015-3, and it is expected to remain the leader of the new drug industry. So far, the development of new drugs is far lower than that of fd015-3, and the market entry rate of new drugs is expected to be lower than that of fd015-3, which is the only new drug industry in China.
The demand for comfort drives the use of narcotic drugs and is optimistic about the substitution of new sedative drugs for old varieties
The core business of the company is narcotic drugs, with a market share of 65% in the first three quarters of 2021. Thanks to the continuous and stable growth driven by the industry, the highest ex factory price in recent 20 years has been stable; Product varieties extend from analgesia to sedation: since 2020, the company has newly approved a number of new sedative drugs. Among them, rimazolom can significantly improve the comfort of patients and reduce the monitoring pressure of doctors. It is expected to replace the large variety of propofol (5 billion in 2020) and become a new growth driver of the company.
The refocusing process continues, the non core assets are stripped, and the financial expenses are expected to decline further
6 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) 018 proposed a firm refocusing strategy. From 2017 to 2021q3, the number of consolidated subsidiaries decreased from 171 to 125, withdrew from blood products / hospitals / pharmaceutical businesses in other provinces / insurance industry with weak competitive advantage and recovered funds, and the asset liability ratio has decreased from 60% to 55%. We expect that with the continuous progress of the refocusing process, the debt ratio is expected to further improve, and the performance will continue to grow with high quality.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We expect that the company’s EPS in the 21-23 years will be 0.89/1.09/1.36 yuan respectively (the original forecast was 0.85/1.01/1.21 yuan, which was higher than expected in the first three quarters), and carg24 in the three years 46%, corresponding to the closing price of PE on April 1, 18 / 15 / 12 times respectively. With reference to the average 20 times PE and high barrier pharmaceutical enterprise valuation of comparable chemical companies, the company is given a 22-year 21 times valuation with a target price of 22.98 yuan. With the continuous advancement of the refocusing process, the company has entered a new stage of high-quality development. We are optimistic about the long-term development of the fine hemp industry and the company and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Weakening of barriers to narcotic drugs; The promotion of new drugs is not as expected; The refocusing is not as expected; The epidemic exceeded expectations
