Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the economic probability in the second quarter showed a trend of first restraining and then increasing, and more attention should be paid to the real estate industry chain
The epidemic unexpectedly affected the pace of steady growth, and the urgency of policy overweight increased significantly in the second quarter. It is expected that the steady growth policy will shift from full deployment to centralized development. A number of pessimistic expectations in the market will bottom out in advance before the fundamentals. Since the second quarter, the negative impact of the economy on the market is weakening. It is suggested to grasp the trend of mid-term repair in the second and third quarters and firmly layout the "two low" varieties.
First of all, the epidemic in many parts of the country in March offset the effect of the steady growth measures and broke the original policy rhythm. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will continue in the second quarter, and the steady growth policy needs to be strengthened urgently. Secondly, the main problems of the current economy are more prominent. It is expected that the policy will shift from comprehensive deployment to precise and centralized force. After this round of epidemic is effectively controlled, it is expected that the prevention and control measures will be further adjusted to reduce the impact on the economy in the future. Finally, the pessimistic economic expectation has reached the extreme. The economic probability in the second quarter showed a trend of first restraining and then rising. The positions and position structure of investors have been fully adjusted. The selling pressure in the A-share market has been significantly released. The peak of concern about overseas risk factors has passed. There has been positive progress on Russia Ukraine issues and China probability regulation issues. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to continue to adhere to the main line of steady growth, focus on the layout of low valuation and expected low varieties, and pay more attention to the real estate industry chain in the second quarter.
Haitong strategy: three bad things are gradually gone, and the pit filling market is in progress
① the factors that triggered the current round of market adjustment were the Fed's interest rate hike, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rebound of the Chinese epidemic, and the three negative effects gradually disappeared. ② It is expected that the market will be more stable in 12 years and the policy will be more stable in 16 years. ③ Continue to pay close attention to the main line of steady growth, such as financial real estate and new infrastructure (photovoltaic wind power and big data cloud computing), which is more flexible.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: A shares continue to rise in the short term, waiting for policy easing
The epidemic situation in Shanghai is expected to peak in mid April and then gradually ease. The current round of epidemics and containment measures in Jilin, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Dongguan have brought great uncertainty to the economy. The economic status of the four places in China is far higher than that of Hubei Province in 2020. The duration of sealing and control under effective measures is expected to be shorter than that in Hubei. As a result, China's economy showed a weak situation of both supply and demand in March, and also faced a huge impact in April. It is in urgent need of strong policy support. We believe that the policy expectation in April will become a key clue to the market.
At present, the market is in the U-shaped bottom area, waiting for policy easing. It is difficult for A-Shares to continue to attack in the short term. It needs a period of shock to build the bottom and wait for the environment to gradually improve. Structural opportunities need to be verified by the first quarterly report. The next stage of the market will focus on the layout of the epidemic rehabilitation + policy combination, and the specific industry allocation: 1) optional consumption, tax exemption, Baijiu and automobiles. 2) Growth preferred medicine (CXO, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.), military industry, photovoltaic.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: rebound rather than reversal, Shanghai Stock Exchange 31003400 sideways fluctuation
The real estate, Shanghai epidemic and the risk expectation of Chinese stocks are converging, which is the core driving force to promote the rebound at the bottom of the stock market. Rebound rather than reverse, Shanghai 31003400 sideways shock.
Industry configuration: embrace the new main line and focus on the cycle and consumption of stocks with low-risk characteristics. In terms of investment, we should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and focus on consumption and cycle sectors. Specifically, there are three directions: 1) pro inflation & High Dividend: coal and chemical resources; 2) To G end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pig, Baijiu, consumer service; Pay attention to the bottom elasticity of the midstream of Q2 consumer building materials, light industry and other parts.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : three marginal improvements, and post holiday mood is expected to be repaired
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has eased and the marginal decline of inflation expectation; Overseas liquidity pressure is in a phased window period; In April, with the relatively stable epidemic situation in China and the expected strength of monetary policy, we expect the A-share sentiment to recover after the Qingming holiday. However, considering that the profit growth rate of Q2 enterprises is still in the downward period, and the Fed's interest rate increase to the table contraction in May will still disturb the market, we think it is difficult to deduce a sustained strong rebound. Maintain the perspective of general trend research and judgment: the rebound space of the market is temporarily anchored by the annual performance growth of non-financial A shares (we expect 4% ~ 7%), which is the key from rebound to reversal or the inflection point of interim report performance.
The current round of real estate stocks may experience a three-stage Market: the improvement of the financing policy at the supply side → the optimization of the competition pattern at the supply side → the recovery of real estate sales at the demand side. At present, the sector is either in the first stage, the leader of central state-owned enterprises or in the second stage. Generally speaking, the second stage market of real estate stocks may still be deductive. Industry configuration: 1) look for areas with improved supply and demand, focusing on photovoltaic wind power, digital infrastructure and IGBT; 2) Pay attention to the capital expenditure direction of the sector with the best cash flow. When the cash flow of upstream energy and resource enterprises is good and the debt reduction goal is basically completed, the demand for stable growth of policies will drive the capital expenditure expansion of upstream enterprises dominated by central state-owned enterprises. We expect the direction to be roughly in energy transformation and circular economy - pay attention to green power, solid waste treatment and renewable metals.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : index shock consolidation, focus on structure and focus on three directions
"Policy bottom" + "market bottom" has emerged. On the one hand, with the significant release of the fear of conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the "boot landing" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March, the time when there were the most "single moths" in the overseas market and the strongest risk aversion of investors has passed. On the other hand, the direction of China's policy relaxation is clear. The financial committee meeting has given a clear deployment to "suit the remedy to the case" for the problems most concerned by the market, such as the sharp decline of a shares, the regulatory conflict of China concept shares, the sharp decline of Hong Kong shares, Internet regulation and so on.
At present, it is still an emotional repair window, with index shock consolidation, focusing on structure. Structurally, it focuses on three directions: real estate + high dividend + the first quarterly report is higher than expected. 1) Real estate (state-owned enterprise real estate and trust): on the one hand, the relaxation of real estate policy is expected to continue to heat up, which is expected to drive the further repair of state-owned enterprise real estate valuation. On the other hand, the gradual resolution of real estate credit risk also brings opportunities for backwardness and make-up of relevant targets. In addition, we can also focus on trusts that benefit from both policy easing expectations and real estate credit risk mitigation. 2) High dividends (banks and securities companies): on the one hand, the global market is still in a chaotic situation of high volatility. On the other hand, the expectation of China's policy relaxation continues to heat up. High dividend sectors such as banks and securities companies are both safe and policy driven, and can attack and retreat. 3) The first quarterly report exceeded expectations (semiconductor, chemical industry, military industry, medicine, nonferrous metals, photovoltaic and coal): the sectors with better than expected performance in the quarterly report period generally performed better.
At present, among the stocks that disclose the first quarterly report in advance and win in advance, the disclosure rate of semiconductor, chemical industry, military industry, medicine, nonferrous metals, photovoltaic and coal is high, and the overall probability of the sector exceeding expectations is high. In the medium and long term, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Anxin Securities: currently in a "positional war", the excess market of real estate may continue
For the current round of excess real estate market (the real estate rebound has increased by 30% since March 15), we always tend to understand it in the transaction logic of "steady growth and high prosperity". Objectively speaking, from the sales, completion and construction data of real estate from January to February, the basic data of real estate continues to deteriorate and is in the stage of recession as a whole, which is obviously reflected in the transaction logic of the bond market. In the environment of no improvement in real estate fundamentals, China's stock market and bond market show "ice and fire" for real estate transactions. It is not difficult to infer that this round of excess real estate market is mainly caused by marginal policy relaxation. At present, the logic of the real estate industry needs to wait for a clear definition of the future long-term development model (for example, refer to the more successful foreign real estate development models: German model, Singapore model, etc.), which has little to do with short-term policy regulation. In the short term, the excess real estate market may continue until the market transaction expectation gradually rises to the predetermined economic goal, that is, to complete the mission of this round of "stable growth". It should be reminded that the steady growth effect brought by this round of marginal relaxation of real estate needs to pass the multiple tests of the epidemic, real estate enterprise financing and residents' leverage ratio, which is doomed to increase the volatility of this round of excess real estate market.
we maintain the judgment that we are currently in "positional warfare" (strategic stalemate, maintaining concentration, not suitable for switching back and forth). At the structural level, in the bottom grinding stage from "policy bottom to market bottom", the market is facing the suppression of economic downturn and policy uncertainty, and the performance of undervalued, value oriented and counter cyclical industries (such as infrastructure and real estate) and weak cyclical industries is better than that of growth oriented industries however, after the bottom grinding stage, the risk appetite picks up, the market will return to the growth style, and the high-risk preference sector is expected to perform better. Corresponding to the current four main lines: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. At present, we are in the process of "realizing steady growth and turning the corner of high prosperity". Our proposed configuration is still steady growth high prosperity post epidemic repair global inflation. For the original high prosperity ranking of wind power, photovoltaic has the highest consensus, followed by semiconductors, military industry, wind power, and finally new energy vehicles. There is a strong consensus on lithium in new energy vehicles.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : prepare for attack
In April 2022, with the mitigation of the epidemic and the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, it is expected to reverse the pessimistic expectation of corporate profits. At the same time, the negative factors that suppress the performance of A-Shares are expected to gradually fall, and A-Shares will gradually reverse the decline and turn from defensive to offensive. Affected by the epidemic, there was a certain pressure on the economic data and social finance data in the first quarter. Under the background of the 5.5% growth target, after the current round of epidemic is expected to be controlled soon, steady growth is expected to become one of the most important tasks in the next stage. In April, the growth rate of new social finance is expected to improve significantly, and gradually reverse the pessimistic expectation of corporate profits. The Federal Reserve may take more radical tightening action on May 4, and there may be room for further upward movement of the US dollar index and US bond yields. However, after May 4, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to tighten more, and the tightening boots fall to the ground. At present, the RMB exchange rate is stable, which shows that under the new world pattern, the tight US monetary policy has less pressure on the RMB than before. The spillover risk of the situation in Russia and Ukraine to China is decreasing. The issue of the overseas listing status of Chinese companies, which was previously worried by the market, is gradually being solved, which helps to alleviate market sentiment. The risk factors are gradually alleviated, and the positive factors begin to increase. April is expected to become the starting point for the transition from defense to attack.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the recovery of risk appetite is slow, and the main line switching of the market will still be frequent
Looking forward to April, first, it is expected that the risk appetite of A-Shares is expected to be maintained under the main tone of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. Second, under the influence of poor market sentiment and no improvement signal of incremental funds, the main line switching of the market is expected to be frequent. It is suggested to continue to maintain balanced allocation and refine it.
From the medium and long-term perspective, we are still optimistic about the three main lines of the third stage of growth style (main line + diffusion), stable growth (new and old infrastructure, real estate and Banking) and consumption recovery (medicine, price rise main line and travel chain). However, in the short-term dimension, under the frequent switching of market hotspots, we suggest that the configuration should be more refined. Specifically: 1) the stable growth chain has high short-term cost performance, and can continue to participate in the upstream and downstream of real estate Banks and new and old infrastructure. 2) In the medium and short term, we can continue to participate in the opportunities related to the main line of medicine and price increase (planting industry / chemical fertilizer). Before the inflection point of the epidemic, the travel chain (Airport / hotel / catering, etc.) is mainly concerned. 3) For the growth style, it is suggested to adjust the growth main line of power equipment, electronics and other industries.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : "policy bottom" has been basically proved, and the probability of "shock upward" after grinding bottom is high
The "policy bottom" of this round of A-Shares has been basically proved, and the probability of "shock upward after grinding the bottom" is high. After the resumption of trading in 2008, A-Shares have bottomed all over the time. The confirmation of "policy bottom" is usually accompanied by the continuous introduction of policy combination, including monetary policy, fiscal policy and capital market related policies. After the "policy bottom" is confirmed, the market often rebounds, but the construction of the market bottom is often not achieved overnight. The disturbance of external factors or concerns about economic fundamentals may make the market grind the bottom again. The "policy bottom" of this round of A-Shares has been basically proved, and the "market bottom" is not too far away. The Shanghai stock index is near Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.Ltd(300032) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom, and there is a high probability of shock and upward after the bottom of A-Shares is worn in the future.
investment strategy: defensive counterattack, moderately balanced allocation 3 since March, A-Shares have continued to adjust, mainly due to the turmoil in Russia and Ukraine, the shift of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and concerns about the local epidemic. On the one hand, the repeated epidemic restricts investors' risk appetite, on the other hand, it will lead to the revision of enterprise profit expectations, especially the middle and downstream enterprises are facing the dual pressure of the epidemic and the rise of raw material prices. In the future, maintaining the stable operation of the economy in the first quarter and the first half of the year is very important to achieve the annual goal. The "steady growth" policy needs to continue to be overweight to hedge the impact of the epidemic, and there is still room for reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in the second quarter. In April, the Politburo meeting will be held, and the main tone of "steady growth" is expected to be maintained to consolidate the "bottom of the market" of a shares. In April, the industry configuration was based on defense and counterattack, and the style was moderately balanced: 1) it was dominated by sectors with undervalued value, high dividends and benefiting from stable growth policies, such as "banking, real estate, building materials"; 2) Give consideration to some growth sectors with high elasticity of performance, such as "new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, East West calculation", etc.
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