review: since November 2021, the judgment style has switched to the direction of steady growth such as finance and real estate. The weekly report on March 13, 2022 judged that "the most panic time has passed, and the market will usher in a phased repair window".
Outlook: index shock consolidation, focus on structure and focus on three directions
"policy bottom" + "market bottom" has appeared . On the one hand, with the significant release of the fear of conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the "boot landing" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March, the time when there were the most "single moths" in the overseas market and the strongest risk aversion of investors has passed. On the other hand, the direction of China's policy relaxation is clear. The financial committee meeting has given a clear deployment to "suit the remedy to the case" for the problems most concerned by the market, such as the sharp decline of a shares, the regulatory conflict of China concept shares, the sharp decline of Hong Kong shares, Internet regulation and so on.
at present, it is still an emotional repair window. The index fluctuates and consolidates, focusing on structure 1, epidemic intensifies the downward pressure on the economy and increases the space and power for subsequent monetary and credit easing 2022 March manufacturing PMI index was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest level in the same period since 2015. Meanwhile, the non manufacturing business activity index was 48.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month. Under the impact of the epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy has further increased. However, from the two sessions, to the meeting of the Finance Committee and then to the national Standing Committee on March 21, the decision-making level's determination to "stabilize growth" has been repeatedly confirmed. The subsequent monetary and credit policy easing is expected to accelerate the landing, providing strong support for stabilizing the macro-economic market. 2. real estate credit risk has also been "removing thunder" 4 on the evening of April 1, rongchuang announced that the extension of "2 rongchuang 01" bonds with a principal of 4 billion due on that day was approved, marking the lifting of the domestic debt default crisis of rongchuang and driving the sharp rise of housing stocks in Hong Kong stocks on April 4. 3. the decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market the meeting of the Finance Committee emphasized "maintaining the stable operation of the capital market", and the national standing committee continued to emphasize "maintaining the stability of the capital market" and required "preventing and correcting the introduction of policies that are not conducive to market expectations" to continue to stabilize market confidence. 4. However, under the disturbance of overseas risk insurance, it is difficult for the market to reverse the V-shape and move upward including overseas inflation, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table, US stock fluctuations, Russia Ukraine conflict and other external factors will continue to be disturbed. Therefore, in the case of probability, the index is still shock consolidation.
structure, focusing on three directions: real estate + high dividend + the first quarterly report exceeding expectations 1) real estate (state-owned enterprise real estate and trust): on the one hand, the relaxation of real estate policy continues to heat up, which is expected to drive the further repair of state-owned enterprise real estate valuation. On the other hand, the gradual resolution of real estate credit risk also brings opportunities for backwardness and make-up of relevant targets. In addition, we can also focus on trusts that benefit from both policy easing expectations and real estate credit risk mitigation 2) high dividends (banks and securities companies): on the one hand, the global market is still in a chaotic situation of high waves. On the other hand, the expectation of China's policy relaxation continues to heat up. High dividend sectors such as banks and securities companies are both safe and policy driven, and can attack and retreat 3) the first quarterly report exceeded expectations (semiconductor, chemical industry, military industry, medicine, nonferrous metals and coal): the sectors whose quarterly results exceeded expectations generally performed better. At present, among the stocks that disclose the first quarterly report in advance and win in advance, the disclosure rate of semiconductor, chemical industry, military industry, medicine, nonferrous metals and coal is high, and the overall probability of the sector exceeding expectations is high.
investment strategy: medium and long term, continue to focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tips: focus on the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
