Event overview:
In March, the delivery volume of key new energy vehicle enterprises was released. According to the data disclosed by various companies: 9985 Weilai vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.6% and a month on month increase of + 62.9%; 15414 Xiaopeng vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 202.1% and a month on month increase of + 147.6%; Ideal 11034 vehicles, + 125.2% year-on-year and + 31.1% month on month; 1795 krypton vehicles, with a month on month ratio of - 38.4%; GAC ea'an 20317 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 188.9% and a month on month increase of + 138.3%; Nezha 12026, year-on-year + 270.5%, month on month + 305.1%; There were 10059 zero runs, with a year-on-year increase of + 908.9% and a month on month increase of + 192.8%.
Analysis and judgment:
Under the epidemic situation, the product power is strongly driven by high growth against the trend
The performance of new forces in March was significantly stronger than that of the industry as a whole, with strong demand and faster delivery. Affected by the epidemic, we expect the sales volume of narrow passenger cars in the whole industry to decline by about 20% year-on-year in March. The new forces generally bucked the trend and increased rapidly, mainly due to the strong orders in hand by the new forces, which promoted the acceleration of stock delivery. The impact of the epidemic on the delivery end is relatively limited, and new orders are more affected in the short term. We expect that with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, new orders are expected to usher in restorative growth.
Driven by strong product power, most new forces are expanding rapidly. From the overall performance of Q1, the product driving force is obvious. Wei Xiaoli, a new force in the head, still maintained rapid growth. The delivery of Wei Lai, Xiao Peng and ideal Q1 increased by + 28.5%, + 159.1% and + 152.1% respectively year-on-year. The second echelon grew rapidly, with Zero run and Nezha Q1 delivery of + 587.4% and + 305.1% respectively year-on-year. The delivery level has made a rapid breakthrough, and the total delivery volume of gac-ea Q1 has reached 45000; Xiaopeng, Nezha and ideal Q1 also exceeded 30000; Weilai and lingpao Q1 delivered 26000 and 22000 vehicles respectively.
The short-term impact of price rise on the total demand is still high growth
New forces have raised prices one after another, and quantity assurance remains the core. This year, affected by the sharp rise in battery costs and the decline in subsidies, new mainstream forces have started price adjustment one after another. For most auto enterprises, the goal this year is still to maintain the quantity. According to our calculation, except for the total increase of about 9.5% - 12.9% in the rear drive version of Tesla Model 3 and model y this year (including the price adjustment on December 31, 2021), the total increase of the mainstream models and main versions of most new forces is only about 3.5% - 6.7%, which is relatively cautious, and the volume is still the core.
The rise in prices has led to an increase in short-term wait-and-see, and the medium and long-term growth still returns to high growth. At the demand level, the short-term rush to pay the deposit and lock the price before the price rise, and the wait-and-see phenomenon increases after the price rise. We believe that medium - and long-term growth will iron out short-term fluctuations, and the core is still driven by product power. According to our prediction, the total number of new energy passenger vehicles this year is expected to exceed 5.3 million, and the structure will gradually transition from "dumbbell" to "spindle". The trend of accelerating the replacement of fuel vehicles of the same level by class A and b new energy passenger vehicles is obvious. It is expected that the total proportion of class A and b new energy passenger vehicles this year will reach 60% (the total proportion of class A and B passenger vehicles in 2021 will exceed 75%).
Electrification enters from 1 to N, and intelligence starts the competition in the second half
The three new forces took the lead in the first half competition dominated by electrification. Many new cars will be delivered this year and enter the development stage from 1 to N:
1) Weilai will launch three new products this year, including et7 and et5 cars and ES7 (medium and large SUV). Et7 was delivered on March 28, with a starting price of 448000 yuan. It is oriented to the high-end pure electric car market. Et5 is expected to be delivered in September. The starting price before the subsidy under the battery rental scheme is 258000 yuan, which is driven by the volume while carrying the power of Weilai luxury brand. ES7 is positioned in the medium and large-scale high-end 5-seat SUV market and is planned to be delivered in Q3. The intelligent configuration of the three vehicles is at the leading level of the same level. In addition, the existing "866" is expected to be listed in May.
2) Xiaopeng flagship SUV Xiaopeng G9 was unveiled in Guangzhou at the end of 2021, with a positioning higher than P7, which will fill the vacancy of medium and large SUV products of the brand. The intelligent configuration of G9 is upgraded again. It is the first mass production vehicle equipped with xpilot 4.0 function, and Q3 is expected to be on the market this year.
3) ideal L9 will be released on April 16 at a price of 45 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 0000 yuan. L9 has been improved in intelligence, power and size. In terms of intelligent driving, the ideal AdMax assisted driving system adopts two NVIDIA orin-x processors, with a total computing power of 508tops and 128 line semi-solid lidar; The smart cockpit is equipped with two Qualcomm 8155 chips as standard; Powered by 1.5T engine and equipped with intelligent 4WD system, the total power is 330kw. The body size is 5200 / 1998 / 1800mm, and the space is further upgraded.
Electric acceleration + Intelligent start reshaping the Centennial industrial pattern
The global new energy vehicle industry as a whole presents the dual characteristics of "electric acceleration + Intelligent opening". The trillion market has been opened, the traditional car enterprises have actively transformed, and the new forces of car manufacturing and technology Internet enterprises (Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Dajiang, etc.) have accelerated their entry to promote the prosperity and development of the industry.
(1) vehicle level: in the process of rapid capacity expansion of the industry, the new power brands represented by Weilai make full use of Internet thinking and select tracks to break through. Although Baidu, Xiaomi and other new entrants launch their models late, the complete industrial chain is expected to build a late development advantage at that time, and their own brands will usher in historic opportunities;
(2) parts level: with the development of electric intelligence and the reshaping of the whole zero relationship, there is a wide space for domestic substitution of independent parts suppliers. Some parts enterprises with strong technology R & D capability are expected to rise to the leading of global subdivided industries through globalization based on the Chinese market. At the same time, the entry of Huawei, Dajiang and other technology enterprises will also accelerate the reconstruction of the industry pattern, and the serious imbalance between the status of China's vehicle industry and the status of parts industry is expected to be alleviated.
Investment suggestions:
This year, the launch of new powerful new products was accelerated, and the product power continued to drive the growth of demand. Since Q2 this year, Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal will successively usher in a new product cycle, and the intelligent configuration will be further upgraded. From the perspective of channel construction and capacity launch of new forces this year, we believe that the new product cycle is expected to drive the rapid increase of sales of new forces this year. The transformation of electric intelligence will promote the great transformation of vehicle business model, and the scientific and technological attributes and consumption attributes will become more prominent, driving the reconstruction of valuation. Benefit target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H]. Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order and firmly looks at multiple parts. The qualitative change at the supply side of new forces and traditional car enterprises continued to advance. In the first half, the trend of electrification has been determined. In the second half, intelligent competition has opened, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit have accelerated together, and electric intelligence has reshaped the industrial order. Rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
Smart electric change will bring about brand power and product power Resha. Car companies are constantly adding smart and electric configurations, and hoping to achieve brand upward: best acoustic - [[6885 Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], interior - [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ] Platform type - [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ]. The dual carbon pressure superimposed electric vehicle weight reduction drives the improvement of endurance. The vehicle has a wide space for lightweight. It is recommended to [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], and the beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tips
The sales volume is lower than the expected new car; The failure to strictly implement laws and regulations such as points and carbon emissions has led to the launch progress of new energy and new models of automobile enterprises not reaching the expectation; The impact of chip shortage.
