\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 563 Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) )
The performance of 2021q4 is under pressure periodically, the profitability is gradually improved, and the "buy" rating is maintained
The company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 15.42 billion yuan (+ 1.41%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.486 billion yuan (+ 84.50%). Excluding French company K, the revenue increased by 10% year-on-year in 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 14% year-on-year. 2021q4 company achieved revenue of 5.398 billion yuan (- 6.19%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 544 million yuan (- 7.82%). Due to the repeated epidemic in China and the lower than expected cold winter, the performance of 2021q4 was under pressure periodically. We lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added a new profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 1.65/19.2/2.18 billion (previously RMB 1.79/2.06 billion in 20222023), corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.61/0.71/0.81 respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 11.2/9.6/8.5 times. The company's profitability has gradually improved, the leisure clothing channel has been optimized, the children's clothing business has returned to growth, and the "buy" rating has been maintained.
The children's clothing business grew steadily, and the proportion of the company's online channel revenue further increased
After stripping kidiliz from France in September 2020 and unifying the caliber, (1) according to categories, the revenue of leisure clothing will reach 5.027 billion yuan (+ 1.43%) in 2021, and the revenue of children's clothing will reach 10.272 billion yuan (+ 14.88%) in 2021. (2) By channel: in 2021, the online sales revenue was 6.458 billion yuan (+ 13.06%), accounting for 41.88%. The offline direct / franchise / joint venture sales revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, 6.82 billion yuan and 621 million yuan respectively, accounting for 9.08%, 44.23% and 4.03% respectively, and the revenue was - 3.07% / + 8.16% / + 42.48% year-on-year respectively.
Profitability continued to improve, inventory scale increased and cash was sufficient
Gross profit margin: in 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the company was 42.58% (+ 3.67pct). By product: the gross profit margin of leisure clothing in 2021 is 40.13% (+ 4.25 PCT). After restoring the caliber, the gross profit margin of children's clothing in 2021 was 43.74%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.06 PCT. Expense ratio: in 2021, the company's sales expense ratio / management expense ratio / R & D expense ratio / financial expense ratio are 21.93% (- 0.10 PCT), 4.03% (- 1.39 PCT), 2.06% (+ 0.14 PCT) and - 0.67% (- 0.17 PCT) respectively. Net interest rate: in 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 9.64% (+ 4.34pct). Inventory: at the end of 2021, the company's inventory was 4.024 billion yuan (+ 61%), products with a stock age of less than one year accounted for 83.7% of the inventory balance, and the stock age structure was reasonable. Accounts receivable: at the end of 2021, the company's accounts receivable were 1.452 billion yuan (+ 4%). In 2021, the company's net cash flow from operating activities was 2.076 billion yuan (- 53.42%), which was mainly due to the bank acceptance bill of interest paid by the company's new buyer in 2020, which significantly reduced the company's cash flow expenditure on purchasing goods. In 2020, the net cash flow from operating activities was 4.457 billion yuan (+ 165.77%), with a high base. Cash: by the end of 2021, the company held cash and cash equivalents of RMB 4.973 billion (- 0.74), with sufficient cash.
Risk tip: the brand operation is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
