According to the latest data of the first commercial vehicle network, China’s heavy truck market sold about 77000 vehicles in March, an increase of 30% month on month compared with February this year.
Among them, the new energy heavy truck is an important growth point. The product is in short supply, and the orders of some enterprises have been scheduled to May.
The sales volume data of excavators in March has also been released, among which the export sales volume reached a new high, with a growth rate of about 49%.
heavy truck sales in 3 month increased by 30% month on month
Although it increased by 30% month on month in March, compared with historical data, the data of 77000 vehicles is not high. The sales volume of 77000 heavy trucks was the lowest in March since 2017, only slightly higher than that of 75000 in March 2016, down 67% from 230000 in the same period last year, with a net decrease of 153000.
The first reason for the sharp decline in year-on-year sales is the epidemic. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been spreading in many places and growing rapidly, which has a certain impact on the sales volume of the industry and downstream construction.
Secondly, the sharp rise in raw material prices in March led to the reduction of production by some manufacturing enterprises, resulting in the reduction of freight volume and the downturn of freight in the market. In this case, many users’ plans to buy and replace new cars have been shelved for the time being.
In addition, in March, many heavy truck manufacturing enterprises and related parts enterprises were limited by prevention and control policies, and their production capacity decreased to varying degrees. The decline of “supply side” of enterprises means that the production of heavy truck manufacturers can not fully meet the car purchase needs of dealers and users, which also leads to the decline of market sales in the current month.
Analysts of the first commercial automobile network believe that the peak season of infrastructure construction may be postponed due to epidemic prevention, and the sales volume of the heavy truck industry is expected to increase significantly from May.
new energy heavy truck production and marketing booming
Although the overall performance of the industry is poor, the production and sales of new energy heavy trucks are booming and large orders continue to appear.
The production of new energy heavy trucks in beiben heavy truck assembly workshop has been scheduled to may, and the production task is very full. The order of new energy heavy trucks in the first quarter is nearly 2000, and the sales volume has exceeded the level of last year.
Not long ago, Dongfeng Liuqi Chenglong won the bid for 120 pure electric heavy trucks of a Hebei Iron and steel group. Specific products include H5 pure electric dump truck and H5 pure electric tractor. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 282kwh lithium iron phosphate battery is selected for the two products, and the battery management mode of rent for sale and separation of vehicle and electricity is adopted.
Although the specific sales data of new energy heavy trucks have not been released, the industry is generally optimistic. Vehicle and parts enterprises predict that the new energy heavy truck market in 2022 will be 3 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 vehicles, an increase of more than 200% compared with 10000 vehicles actually sold in 2021.
“The production and sales volume of new energy heavy trucks in 2022 is expected to be between 30000 and 50000. The sales target of tebaijia this year is to ensure 20000 sets and strive for 30000 sets.” Huang Gaocheng, general manager of tebaijia, said: “tebaijia has sufficient orders in the first quarter of this year, and the number of orders has exceeded 8000 sets.”
XCMG new energy believes that the market demand for new energy heavy trucks may reach about 50000 in 2022, and the enterprise sales target is 5000.
Market participants believe that with the implementation of the dual carbon target and the increase in the number of charging stations, the new track of new energy heavy trucks has been hot upgraded. The new energy heavy trucks are gradually driven by pure subsidies to the market, and are ushering in a period of rapid growth. It is expected that the performance of the industry will be better in the second half of the year.
excavator exports hit a new high
According to the grassroots survey of CME construction machinery trade network, the sales volume of excavators in March was about 40000, with a year-on-year growth rate of about – 49% and a month on month decrease of about 36%. Among them, the estimated sales volume in the Chinese market is 31000 units, with a growth rate of about – 58%; The estimated sales volume in the export market is 9000 units, with a growth rate of about 49%, and the sales volume in the export market reaches a new high.
At present, jiadahai export is becoming the common choice of construction machinery head enterprises. However, it is worth being vigilant that some enterprises said that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, repeated epidemics and geographical conflicts, cross-border logistics was limited, resulting in the backlog of construction machinery and equipment at Chinese ports. In addition, the travel of local business personnel is limited, and the visa rejection rate in some countries remains high.
Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) chairman Xiang Wenbo believes that construction machinery has experienced five years of rapid growth from 2016 to 2021, with moderate decline in growth and even negative growth expected. There will be many variables in 2022, and the overall trend will be “low before high”.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the steady growth of infrastructure this year will give full play to its role as a cornerstone, and the demand for construction machinery is expected to improve marginally. At present, the stock prices and valuations of Listed Companies in relevant industrial chains are at a low level, which is expected to usher in investment opportunities of oversold rebound.
