Although A-Shares are closed on holidays, Hong Kong stocks are still open today. Real estate stocks represented by China Jinmao (00817. HK) and technology stocks represented by BiliBili (09626. HK) and Baidu (09888. HK) rose sharply. The logic behind it is of great significance to the opening of A-Shares the day after tomorrow. A share capital opened on Wednesday, and real estate stocks and technology stocks are likely to “copy” the trend of the Hong Kong stock market.
The rise of real estate stocks is mainly expected. From the macro level, steady growth is the biggest economic and political task at present. There are too many industries involved in the real estate industry chain. In order to stimulate the recovery of the economy, real estate stimulation is indispensable. Although it is impossible to go through the old road, and the real estate industry will not soar as in the previous cycle, stimulation still needs to be provided.
From the perspective of local real estate policies, Qinhuangdao and other cities have liberalized purchase and loan restrictions. The real estate relaxation starts from the third and fourth tier cities, and the signal of policy relaxation has been very clear. Therefore, the real estate stocks in the secondary market have actually begun to rebound. First, the real estate stocks with extremely poor fundamentals have rebounded, such as China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) ( China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) . SH), Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) ( Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) . SZ), and then, Real estate stocks with real performance growth will take over the banner of rebound.
The rebound of real estate should be sustained well. The expectation of policy relaxation is strong. Public funds will withdraw some funds from the growth stock track with high valuation and enter real estate stocks. In addition to the rebound of real estate stocks, the relaxation of real estate policy will also radiate to the undervalued bank stocks with strong credit growth expectation, especially the bank stocks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces with active economy, such as the bank stocks of urban commercial banks, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) . SZ) Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) ( Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) . SH), Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) ( Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) . SH), etc. are good targets. Then home appliances, focusing on the conduction effect of real estate relaxation, should be carried out in a shares.
Of course, don’t make it into faith! The golden age of real estate investment has passed. This wave of rebound is caused by policy easing expectations and valuation repair after oversold rebound. When real estate stocks, bank stocks and other stocks in the real estate industry chain rise sharply, we should be vigilant. The rebound height is about 30% from the real estate index.
Technology stocks in Hong Kong stocks also rebounded sharply today. Technology is the trend and direction of China’s economic development in the future. The sharp decline of China concept stocks and Internet technology stocks has indeed brought a golden pit. For technology stocks in the A-share market, first, there are few enterprises with real scientific and technological competitiveness, and second, the overall valuation is still too high. Therefore, it should be considered as a rebound for the time being, and it should be too early to reverse.
There is no doubt that the development of electric vehicles is not an era in the history of the world. New energy vehicles are China’s advantageous track. Compared with American, Japanese and European cars, China’s fuel vehicles do not have PK strength at all, but in the golden track of new energy vehicles, China can overtake in corners.
The current bad news is that the lithium carbonate in the upstream has risen too much, crowding out the profits of the downstream vehicle, and the downstream vehicle enterprises have to raise the price, which is unfavorable to the growth of sales. This is a typical case of the game between the upstream and the middle and downstream of the new energy vehicle track. Now we need to find a balance process. In addition, the valuation of the concept stock of new energy vehicles is still too expensive. It rose too sharply last year, just like a shares, At a good time, it soared and overdrawn the performance growth in the next few years.
At the moment, the new energy vehicle will also rebound, because the good news is here, but it is only a rebound. It will take a while for the valuation bubble to digest. The process of grinding will be more painful.
Photovoltaic, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) these new energies, stocks with cheap valuation, such as stocks with a P / E ratio of less than 30 times and continuous growth in performance, are now in the batting area, especially in the downstream application scenario. Because the demand is growing, the increase in the price of raw materials in the upstream has brought too much capacity expansion, and the new energy is better in the downstream. In addition, Germany and other European countries face high prices of oil and natural gas, which will also increase the investment in new energy such as photovoltaic, thus increasing the import of photovoltaic industry in China.
In the track of new energy and new energy vehicles, photovoltaic should be the most deterministic.
