the market in the second quarter has been opened, and future institutions are optimistic about these three main lines
institutions are optimistic about the future trend
strong signal of steady growth
In the first quarter of 2022, the A-share market was greatly adjusted due to multiple factors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 10.65%, the Shenzhen composite index fell by 18.44% and the gem index fell by 19.96%. Under the background of weak shocks, the valuation of most sectors fell significantly.
Looking forward to the market in the second quarter, most institutions believe that although the adverse factors affecting the market have not been eliminated, they have been digested to a considerable extent in the sharp decline in the first quarter. They are optimistic about the future market trend. A shares are facing better investment return expectations in the medium and long term. The short-term market downturn may be a medium and long-term position building opportunity. With the gradual clarification of uncertain factors, In the second quarter, there may be a rebound opportunity of restorative rise based on the adjustment in the first quarter. According to the sorting of securities times · data treasure, the opinions of institutions on the research and judgment of A-Shares after the festival mainly focus on the following aspects:
1. Both macro and micro are good
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that at the macro level, the balance profit handed over by the central bank recently and the meeting of the Finance Committee held on March 16 have further clarified that there may be more positive in the future at the macro level; The US trade representative’s office will resume the tax exemption for some imported goods from China, and China US economic and trade relations may move towards further easing. At the micro level, some companies recently disclosed positive operating data from January to February. In addition, the current repurchase scale of the company is at an all-time high, and the financial reporting season entered in April. Companies with financial reports exceeding expectations tend to perform better.
Ping An Securities believes that the meeting of the two sessions and the financial committee in March released a strong signal of stable growth and stable expectation, which helped the market regain confidence. On the one hand, the meeting of the Finance Committee responded to the four aspects of macroeconomic, real estate, China concept shares, Hong Kong shares and industry supervision concerned by the market, effectively resolving market concerns; On the other hand, there have been signs of marginal easing in China US relations recently, further consolidating the policy bottom. The heads of state of the two sides spoke again four months later, and the CSRC is also actively communicating with US regulators on China US audit and supervision cooperation.
2, “steady growth” signal may be stronger
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) believes that the economic growth target for this year is about 5.5%, which requires hard work. It is expected that a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth and stabilize market expectations may be actively introduced in the future, such as further interest rate and reserve requirement cuts and deregulation of the real estate industry.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the recent epidemic in many places in China has caused a comprehensive impact on the manufacturing and non manufacturing sectors. Against this background, the executive meeting of the State Council on March 29 pointed out that it is necessary to “strengthen confidence, set goals and do not relax”, and deploy policies and measures such as making good use of government bonds, expanding effective investment, promoting weak spots, increasing aftereffect and stable economic growth. It is expected that infrastructure investment will be an important starting point for steady growth, Will be placed in a more prominent position.
3. Three main lines of investment after the festival
in the first quarter, with the sustained development of the steady growth policy, the steady growth sectors such as finance, real estate and infrastructure performed relatively strongly. As for the investment focus direction in the future, “steady growth” is still the main line favored by major institutions reasons are mainly: in March, the outlook of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries fell below the boom and bust line simultaneously, and macro policies are needed to strengthen the expansion of domestic demand and steady growth. From the recent news, the national development and Reform Commission held a meeting to require all departments to strengthen organization and leadership, strengthen coordination and cooperation, ensure the implementation and effectiveness of each task of 102 major projects, and form the physical workload as soon as possible. This year, infrastructure investment will be moderately advanced, which means that infrastructure investment will be strengthened and the progress will be accelerated, which will stimulate the expansion of effective demand and play a supporting role in economic growth.
in addition, most institutions believe that while paying close attention to “steady growth”, they should also pay attention to the varieties with relatively low valuation and the new energy, tourism hotels, consumption and other sectors with improved profit margin
oversold growth stocks list released
According to the investment main line focused on in the investment strategy of securities companies, combed more than 800 stocks in multiple sectors such as real estate, new and old infrastructure, medicine, tourism, consumption and new energy, and counted 58 oversold growth stocks according to the following dimensions
1. The number of institutional ratings exceeds 10 and the number of buy in ratings exceeds 10;
2. In 2022 and 2023, the institutions unanimously predicted that the growth rate of net profit would exceed 20%;
3. Excluding stocks with annual report, performance forecast loss or declining performance in 2021;
4. The market value is more than 10 billion yuan;
5. The latest price is about 30% lower than the high since last year.
Nine shares including China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) have been rated by more than 30 institutions China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) have the largest number of rating agencies, reaching 39 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) 2022 from January to February, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit was about 2.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%, and the operating indicators reached the best record in the same period in history Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the company will continue to expand in 2021, increase market share, and then improve the voice of supply chain negotiation. The China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) plan in 2022 will increase the assessment of profit indicators, and the profitability of the company is expected to continue to improve significantly in 2022.
Most of the stocks of are pharmaceutical stocks. Among the 58 stocks, the latest share prices of 8 stocks, including Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) are more than 60% higher than the highs since last year in fact, pharmaceutical and biological industry is regarded as a sunrise industry. Many tenfold stocks have been born in the secondary market. The valuation of the sector has been gradually digested due to the influence of policies such as medical insurance and fee control in 2021. The overall industry valuation has fallen to a historical low, and there is a large space for emotional recovery.
Recently, there have been many outbreaks in China, and the pharmaceutical industry has also ushered in many incremental opportunities.
10stocks including , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , etc. have been net bought by Beishang capital since March.
On the face of funds, nearly 50% of the oversold growth stocks have gained the attention of NorthNorth capital from the attention of NorthNorth capital funds. Since in 3 months, the accumulated net purchase of funds for going north was 3.304 billion yuan and 2.535 billion yuan respectively.
In terms of sustainable growth of performance, according to the consistent prediction data of institutions, the average net profit growth rate of Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Bestechnic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688608) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) in 2022 and 2023 exceeded 50%.
