Recently, many media have played up the increase of anchored ships near Shanghai and Ningbo, up to five times, resulting in serious congestion. Moreover, many reports are accompanied by charts marking the location of ships to illustrate the existence of congestion. So, is Shanghai Port really blocked? Is it greatly affected by Omicron (a new variant of covid-19 virus)? Therefore, the big data laboratory of port and shipping of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center uses the big data of automatic ship identification system (AIS) to analyze and try to verify the truth of network transmission blocking the port.
I. Shanghai port was busy but not congested in the first quarter
Since the first quarter of 2022, the number of container ships arriving at Shanghai port has increased by 35.75% year-on-year compared with the first quarter of last year (as shown in Figure 1). The port production is contrary to the normal of the off-season in the first quarter of previous years, and the average number of container ships arriving at the port every week is close to the peak season level in the third quarter of previous years (as shown in Figure 2). This is actually good news, indicating that the volume of container transportation in Shanghai remains at a high level.
Therefore, at present, Shanghai port is busy, but the congestion should not be so severe. First of all, the type of anchored ship is the key. How many of the 349 anchored ships are container ships? Our laboratory estimates that there will be no more than 50 ships this week. Other anchored ships include dry bulk carriers, grocery ships, liquid cargo ships, and even fishing boats, refueling ships and fishing nets (some fishing nets will also be equipped with positioning equipment). For cargo ships other than containers, if transporting bulk commodities (such as coal, oil, iron ore, etc.), anchoring in the Yangtze River estuary is sometimes a hoarding behavior, similar to floating warehouse on water.
II. Is the online congestion picture credible?
With Shanghai as the center, the Yangtze River Delta is the region with the largest ship density and the busiest traffic flow organization in the world. The number of ship positioning signals along the coast of the Yangtze River Delta has exceeded 15000 all year round. Coupled with the special natural environment and complex channel order of navigation in the waters of the Yangtze River Estuary, it has become the waters with the most dense maritime traffic flow in the world. As the world's largest container port, Shanghai will face one of the most difficult challenges in port operation and water traffic management in the world.
The online map looks crowded. In fact, it is the norm in the waters around Shanghai. The symbol proportion of ships in the map is obviously larger than the scale of the map, which also gives people the illusion of congestion visually. This picture can only show the busy traffic in Shanghai port, not the congestion in Shanghai port. In fact, the area of concentrated anchoring of ships that we are more concerned about is in the Yangtze River Estuary, rather than the approach channel of Yangshan Port (as shown in Figure 3). This map of ship distribution is drawn after the ship automatic identification system (AIS) sends the ship satellite positioning signal to the shore antenna or satellite through very high frequency (VHF) radio. There are many websites on the network. The density of ships near Shanghai is similar all year round.
III. Shanghai port has the ability to cope with the current busy situation
The causes of port congestion are diverse. Congestion can be induced from ship unloading, cargo loading and unloading, yard stacking, rear collection and distribution, empty container supply and warehouse cargo volume. For example, at the end of 2020, Shanghai port was congested due to the short supply of empty containers, while in the third quarter of 2021, Long Beach port in the United States was blocked due to wharf loading and unloading efficiency and rear truck drivers. If only from the perspective of ship unloading, the historical records show that the peak capacity of container ships in Shanghai port is more than 400 times per week in the peak season. From the 10th to 12th weeks of 2022, the number of container ships received and unloaded in Shanghai port was 285, 307 and 396, rising rapidly, but it has not yet reached the upper limit. Our laboratory analyzed the average time of ships in port in the first quarter of this year and the same period last year. This index often better reflects the congestion of a port. It can be seen that throughout the first quarter, although the number of ships arriving at the port increased significantly year-on-year, Shanghai port has always controlled the average time of ships in the port within 72 hours, showing strong response strength and toughness.
From the perspective of the horizontal comparison of the average length of container ships in the port in the first quarter, the ports in East China and South China generally enter the busy period, but the overall performance of the above ports with an average year-on-year increase of 20% in the port time, for the traditional off-season, it should not reach the degree of congestion or serious congestion.
IV. Shanghai port should respond appropriately and still adhere to it
For the busier business in the first quarter of this year, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) handled it properly. In particular, after the release of the information on the sealing and control of Pudong, almost all the dock operators in Shanghai Port came to the port and went all out to ensure the smooth flow of export enterprises and the stability of the global supply chain.
Truck drivers can pass normally with the electronic equipment handover form and nucleic acid negative report within 48 hours. Thanks to the paperless delivery of goods in the port, the construction of automatic terminals and automatic transformation in recent years, the unnecessary contact of port operators has been greatly reduced since the outbreak of the epidemic. In addition, Shanghai port has also launched services such as "changing containers from land to water" and "sea rail combined transport", which can alleviate the pressure of the shortage of road transport resources in Shanghai port through the optimization of the collection and distribution system.
Today, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) responded to the news about "serious congestion in Shanghai Port", saying that Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) strictly prevent the epidemic, the production and operation of the terminal are as usual, and there is no congestion of container ships. He also said that affected by the current round of epidemic, some domestic and foreign trade enterprises encountered new difficulties and emergencies when arranging goods to enter and leave the port. Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) immediately launched the emergency plan, overcame many pressures and difficulties, and made every effort to ensure the stability and smoothness of the supply chain and logistics chain.
Finally, the author did find that the average time of container ships in Shanghai Port reached 82 hours in the 12th week of 2022, which indeed showed a strong upward trend. Therefore, it is still very important to pay attention and respond actively at all times, and we can't relax our vigilance. I wish Shanghai port a successful response to the dual challenges of the current epidemic and busy.
