Due to the uncertainty of battery technology route and the impact of upstream squeeze on profits, the expansion of photovoltaic cells reached a low point in 2021. However, this situation is changing. On April 1, battery leader Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ) announced that it would invest in the construction of 32gw high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project with a total investment of 12 billion yuan.
Specifically, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) Tongwei Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) under Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) plans to sign the investment agreement with Meishan Management Committee of Sichuan Tianfu new area to invest in the construction of 32gw high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project in Qinglong Street of Meishan Tianfu new area. The project is implemented in two phases, of which the investment of phase I 16GW battery project is about 6 billion yuan, and strive to be put into operation before the end of December next year, and phase II 16GW battery project will be started at an appropriate time.
listed company
expand battery capacity
The reporter noted that Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) has just completed the issuance of 12 billion yuan of convertible bonds at the time of throwing out the latest investment plan. However, this convertible bond investment project mainly focuses on silicon materials and silicon chips, which is not closely related to batteries. At the beginning of 2020, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) once released a business development plan for 20202023, in which the arrangement of photovoltaic cells shows that the production capacity target is 40-60gw in 2021, 60-80gw in 2022 and 80-100gw in 2023.
It is worth mentioning that last month, Longji, Jingke, Jingao and other manufacturers announced capacity expansion plans, most of which involved battery links. Among them, Longji plans to expand the production capacity of 30GW batteries, and Jingao plans to expand the production capacity of no less than 10GW batteries. Different from the vertical integration layout of these manufacturers, Tongwei is a manufacturer specializing in the layout of battery links, and has not yet built a vertical integration industrial chain.
According to the data of PV InfoLink, in the second half of last year, the vertical integration manufacturers had new cell production lines, the self-sufficiency rate continued to increase, the market share of professional cell manufacturers was gradually divided, and the growth rate began to shrink. Specifically, the annual growth rate of the top five professional battery manufacturers reached 81% in 2020, while the annual growth rate of shipments in 2021 was reduced to 36%.
In fact, when Longji announced the above-mentioned production expansion plan, the market generally believed that Longji's move was to make up for its own battery short board, because Longji's capacity of silicon wafers and components was higher than that of batteries in the past. Then, in the context of the popularity of integrated manufacturers, do professional manufacturers such as Tongwei still have space, and does this expansion have sufficient demand support?
For this question, an insider told reporters that it can be observed from three aspects: first, from the perspective of deterministic trend, the demand for photovoltaic will increase in the future, and the growth rate is very fast, and the market cake is getting bigger; Second, even if integrated manufacturers are expanding their battery capacity, at present, none of the battery and module capacity of integrated manufacturers is configured according to the ratio of 1:1, up to 0.8:1. Therefore, there is still a lot of space left for professional battery manufacturers; Third, new entrants continue to make components in the market, and these enterprises do not have battery capacity, such as Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) and Huansheng photovoltaic under Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) and so on.
From the perspective of PV InfoLink, this year, the living space of professional battery manufacturers continues to disappear, and vertically integrated manufacturers can suppress the profits of the battery end by their own battery capacity. The agency expects that in addition to studying high-end differentiated products, some professional battery manufacturers will continue to expand upstream and downstream supply chains or alliance cooperation.
battery technology is a must
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) recently disclosed the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. Although the company's net profit increased significantly, from the reasons disclosed by the company, it mainly benefited from the year-on-year increase in volume and price of silicon business, without talking about the battery business.
Last year, due to the soaring upstream price of photovoltaic, the profits of battery link were squeezed, and the life of another battery leader Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) was also difficult. In the first quarter of this year, the price of silicon materials remained high, and the dilemma of photovoltaic cells is likely to continue the trend of last year. As mentioned above, as photovoltaic cells were at the crossroads of technological changes last year, the pace of production expansion in the industry slowed down. As a battery leader, another focus of Tongwei's expansion is what technical route the company will take.
In the announcement, Tongwei did not clarify this problem, but only said that the company has made large-scale R & D investment in new battery technology fields such as hjt and TOPCON and achieved leading R & D results. In the future, the company will timely introduce new battery technology for large-scale mass production, further promote the development trend of large-size and flake, and improve the comprehensive cost performance of new technology products.
Indeed, battery technology has become a must for the current photovoltaic industry. Not long ago, the market was worried because the Topcon battery and components of Jingke were not as expected. In addition, Longji officially announced the indium free hjt battery at the end of March, while atlas said that hjt would make milestone technological progress within the year.
According to a forecast data from China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the proportion of n-type cells (hjt and TOPCON) is expected to increase from 3% to 13.4% in 2022. The production capacity of TOPCON cells is expected to exceed 35gw and hjt is expected to exceed 13GW by the end of 2022 In addition, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) the forecast shows that the production expansion plan of hjt will be in the scale of 20gw-30gw this year. This scale seems not small, but it actually reflects that industry participants are still in the exploratory stage. A person from a battery manufacturer told reporters that such a scale is spread to many industry leaders. As long as each company makes a 1-2gw experimental production line, it can reach the predicted production expansion scale. By implication, the industry is far from entering the stage of selecting the next generation battery technology and implementing large-scale production expansion.
It should be noted that the production expansion cycle of photovoltaic cells is 6-9 months, and the first phase of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) this investment project will be put into operation before the end of December next year, which means that there is still a lot of time for the company to make decisions to determine which technology to expand on a large scale. As for which battery technology can stand out in the industry, let the bullet fly for a while.
