Looking back on March, it was supposed to be a warm spring season, but it ushered in the “cold spring” of the stock market. Fortunately, it was dangerous.
Under the suppression of uncertain factors such as the conflict in the external situation, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the high level of global inflation and the repeated epidemic in China, A-Shares suffered a lot in March, individual stocks fell one after another, and market sentiment fell to the freezing point; At the same time, with the continuous introduction of the policy combination, the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council was held on March 16. After the Shanghai index hit the lowest point of 302330, it came out of the “V” shaped rebound.
Thus, a number of institutions said that the “policy bottom” of A-Shares has been basically proved. Huachuang Securities said that the Shanghai stock index is near Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.Ltd(300032) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom, and there is a high probability of upward shock after the bottom of A-Shares is ground in the future; Guosheng Securities believes that China’s policy bottom is now, and the economic bottom and market bottom are expected to be formed one after another, but it will take time, which is also a relatively consistent expectation of the current market.
At present, A-Shares have stepped into “April day”. On the first trading day of April, driven by heavyweights such as banks and real estate, the three major A-share stock indexes fluctuated upward and “made a good start” smoothly. So, what do investors think of the post holiday A-share market trend? How should we lay out the future market? In addition, has investor sentiment changed?
Therefore, we conducted an exclusive survey on the post holiday stock market conjecture to understand the current views of many investors.
Q1
did you make money in the stock market
For the just concluded first quarter, the profit and loss of investors in the A-share market. As of this afternoon (April 2) (the same below), the survey showed that 41.2% of investors said they had “stepped on” thunder stocks and suffered a terrible loss; 32.1% of the investors believed that they stopped the loss in time and made a small loss to a certain extent; Another 10.2% of investors mentioned that they followed the trend and made a small profit; More 16.5% of investors said they bought bull stocks and achieved little successcenter>
after the festival, where will a shares go
nearly 5 shareholders make the same choice
After the “good start” of A-Shares in April, the trend of A-Shares after the festival has become the key. The survey shows that 28.5% of investors believe that the market is expected to rise; 22.5% of investors said that the market is expected to fall; Another 49% of investors think the market may remain volatilecenter>
what kind of subject matter
become a “sweet pastry” in the eyes of investors
On the question of which sector is more optimistic about the performance after the festival, the survey shows that 19.5% of investors are optimistic about the large financial sector; 19.2% of investors have high expectations for infrastructure targets led by real estate; 17.1% of investors favor pharmaceutical stocks; Another 16.4% of investors are optimistic about resource stocks; The support rate of large consumption is low, only 9.7%; In addition, 18.1% of investors have unique vision and prefer other stockscenter>
how to operate after section
more than 3 more investors are bullish vs more than 3 more investors are bearish more investors are bearish
On the issue of how to adjust positions after the festival, the survey shows that 31.6% of investors are firmly optimistic about the future market and consider bargain hunting; 34.2% of investors will reduce their positions at high prices; Another 34.2% of investors said they would wait and see for the time being and their positions remained unchanged.
Based on the above survey results and the positions of investors, it is not difficult to find that at present, some investors are becoming more risk averse and dare not act rashly. For the post holiday A-share market, investors’ long and short differences have increased. For the future operation, it is concentrated in the three sectors of real estate, medicine and finance.
However, on the first trading day of April, there was a certain degree of differentiation in the real estate sector, individual leaders smashed the sector, and the subject of the pharmaceutical industry chain also faced a correction. From the perspective of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, the opportunity lies in stocks with low-risk characteristics. 1) As risk appetite declines, investment ideas should be changed: from chasing risk to aversion to risk, investment opportunities are not in the sector with high-risk characteristics, but in the sector with low-risk characteristics. 2) As the risk appetite decreases, the investment style should be switched: instead of looking at the company through a telescope, we should look at the company through a microscope. The key to stock selection lies in the sectors with high certainty of earnings and relatively reasonable valuation. Value stocks are better than growth stocks, and dividend & high dividend strategy / undervalued value is dominant, but the range of low-risk characteristics and earnings certainty can be wider.
For the A-share market in April, Huaxin Securities believes that long and short factors at home and abroad are intertwined, and the process from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market is doomed to twists and turns. However, it is certain that under the disturbance of the epidemic, the economic data in the first quarter will be under pressure again, and the necessity and strength of steady growth will be strengthened again. It is suggested to pay attention to the large infrastructure, large real estate and large financial sectors that benefit from steady growth and wide credit; The easing of the external situation has driven the marginal rise of market risk appetite, and the incremental funds return to a shares, superimposing performance catalysis and loose expectations. The high boom growth of PEG in a reasonable range is worthy of attention; In the late stage of economic recession, stability and cyclical style are relatively dominant, coupled with the high commodity prices priced abroad, the trading logic of re inflation is still supported.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that companies with better than expected earnings in history tend to perform better when they enter the earnings season in April. For this year’s earnings season, the current market’s expectation of profit growth in 2022 is high, and the probability of low annual performance is high. Therefore, the stock prices of industries that still have good performance in the first quarter may have a better performance.
YueKai Securities said that it is expected that under the hedging of foreign factors in April, the A-share shock repair market is expected to continue. The change of profit expectation will lead to the differentiation of the market. It is suggested that investors should pay more attention to individual stocks than index, and focus on two main lines around the certainty of performance and the layout of policy force end.
First, the performance window is approaching, and pay attention to the pre hi sector of the first quarterly report. April will usher in a performance intensive disclosure period, and the market will return to the verification period of performance. From the perspective of industry prosperity, the performance certainty of basic chemical industry, electronics, medical biology, national defense and military industry is relatively stronger. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the performance of the first quarterly report in advance in combination with the matching degree of valuation.
Second, grasp the main line of policy. As the main policy line, steady growth will remain the main market in the long run. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to new and old infrastructure and investment opportunities in the consumer industry to expand domestic demand. In addition, the energy sector is expected to receive rapid development opportunities and high-quality policy suggestions, and the energy sector is expected to pay close attention to the high-quality investment sector in the near future.
