\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 541 Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) )
Core conclusion
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 19.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 6.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 326 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, which was in line with expectations.
Comments: Q4 has improved significantly, and the reversal of impairment affects the performance growth. The revenue of 21q4 was 6.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the quarter of 21q4 was 326 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. The growth rate of net profit was much lower than that of revenue, mainly due to the reversal of credit impairment of more than 100 million yuan in the same period last year. If this part was excluded, the growth rate of net profit remained relatively fast.
Raw materials rose, profit margins were under pressure, and increased reserves dragged down cash flow. In the past 21 years, the price of steel, the company’s main raw material, rose sharply. Throughout the year, the steel price rose by more than 40% year-on-year. The rise of raw materials squeezed the company’s profits. In the past 21 years, the company’s gross profit margin was 12.64%, down 0.91pct year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 5.89%, down 0.05pct year-on-year. The company’s net operating cash flow in 21 years was -202 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 361 million yuan, which was mainly due to the company’s increasing strategic reserves of steel under the background of large rise. On a year-on-year basis, the company’s inventory increased significantly by 1.757 billion yuan to 7.5 billion yuan in 21 years, and the cash expenditure dragged down the cash flow. The production capacity ranks first in the industry and continues to expand, with a target of 5 million tons. The company has 10 bases, with a steel structure component capacity of 4.2 million tons in 2021, ranking first in the industry. Recently, the company signed another project investment base agreement with Woyang county government, which plans to invest 1 billion yuan to expand production, with a proposed land area of 240000 square meters, and the company’s capacity expansion further sank. At the end of the year 22, the company’s planned production capacity reached 5 million tons. Although the current progress is slightly slower than expected, the company’s production capacity expansion in the year 22 is expected to accelerate, supporting the annual performance in the year 22.
Investment suggestion: it is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 14.71/18.76/2.389 billion yuan, corresponding to pe15 / 12 / 9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of capacity utilization rate falling short of expectations, the risk of steel price fluctuation, the risk of intensified competition and the risk of intensified competition
