\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved a main business revenue of 106.2 billion yuan in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of + 11.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.3%; Among them, the revenue of Q4 alone was 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.1%. At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 216.75 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Maotai liquor and series liquor are driven by two wheels, and the proportion of direct sales has increased significantly. 1. By product, the annual revenue of Maotai liquor was 93.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.2%; In terms of split volume and price, the sales volume was + 5.7% year-on-year, and the ton price was + 4.3% year-on-year, reaching 2.58 million yuan / ton. The increase in ton price was mainly due to the increase in the price of non-standard liquor and the proportion of direct sales channels; The revenue of series liquor was 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.1%, of which the sales volume was + 1.5% year-on-year, and the ton price was + 24.2% year-on-year to 420000 yuan / ton. The sharp increase in ton price was mainly due to the direct price increase and the upgrading of product structure. 2. In terms of channels, the revenue of direct sales channels was 24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.5%. The proportion of direct sales channels increased by 8.7 percentage points to 22.7%, and the channel structure was continuously optimized. 3. 21 single Q4 Maotai liquor was + 15.3% year-on-year, and series liquor was + 2.1% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter, the amount of Maotai liquor was increased, and the proportion of superimposed direct sales was increased, driving a significant increase in revenue month on month.
Profitability improved steadily and cash flow continued to improve. 1. The annual gross profit margin increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points, the sales expense rate and financial expense rate decreased by 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points respectively, the management expense rate increased by 0.8 percentage points, the expense rate remained stable as a whole, the net interest rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 52.5%, and the profitability improved steadily. 2. The gross profit margin of 21q4 increased by 0.7 percentage points, mainly due to the reduction of the proportion under the control of series liquor, the business tax and surcharge rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.5%, the management expense rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 9.4%, and the net profit margin of 21q4 increased by 1.7 percentage points to 49.8%. The profitability continued to increase. 3. At the end of the period, the company received 14.3 billion yuan in advance, a year-on-year increase of – 4.5% and a month on month increase of + 38.9%; The annual cash inflow from operating activities was 131.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.0%, and the cash flow continued to improve.
The goal of the 22-year plan is positive, the reform action continues to be implemented, and we are optimistic about accelerating growth throughout the year. 1. The company plans to increase its total operating revenue by about 15% year-on-year in 2022, highlighting the new atmosphere of the company’s determination to forge ahead. In 22q1, the expected revenue is about + 18% year-on-year and the net profit attributable to the parent company is about + 19% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual goal. 2. The company launched “I Maotai” app and launched its own e-commerce platform, which can expand the long tail consumer group, improve the capacity of volume and price control and reduce the sharp fluctuation of wholesale price. 3. Adhering to the “five line development path” and the “five in one marketing law”, the company has made clear the keynote of 22 years of rapid development. At present, the direction of market-oriented reform is clear, and the operation and management efficiency is steadily improved. Under the optimization of governance, the company will release the growth potential to the greatest extent and enter a new era of high-quality development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 49.74 yuan, 58.77 yuan and 69.00 yuan respectively, and the corresponding valuations will be 35 times, 29 times and 25 times respectively. In 2022, the company’s volume and price rise together, with strong certainty, can accelerate growth and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
