\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 460 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) )
Company events
The company issued the 2021 annual report. 1) Throughout the year, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.162 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 102.07%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 410.26%. 2) From the fourth quarter alone, the company's Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 4.108 billion yuan (year-on-year + 241.90% / month on month + 37.43%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.756 billion yuan (year-on-year + 296.96% / month on month + 160.91%).
The volume and price of lithium salt products increased simultaneously, which helped the company's performance increase significantly
1) in terms of price, benefiting from the high boom of new energy vehicle industry, the lithium price center continues to move upward. The data released by the Ministry of industry and Commerce showed that the production and sales of lithium cars continued to increase by 600.01 times year-on-year, respectively. In 2021, the average market price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was about 122600 yuan / ton, which was + 168.9% year-on-year compared with the average price of 45600 yuan / ton in 2020; The average market price of lithium hydroxide is about 114100 yuan / ton, which is + 120.3% year-on-year compared with the average price of 51800 yuan / ton in 2020. The average price of lithium salt products of the company is 90700 yuan / ton in 2021, which is + 49.12% year-on-year. The selling price of lithium salt products has increased significantly, and the performance of the company has been improved.
2) in terms of production and sales, in 2021, the company's lithium salt products achieved an output of 89700 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 65.23%, and sales of 90700 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 43.97%. The scale of production and sales of lithium salt products increased, which was mainly due to the orderly ramp up of lithium salt project capacity. The Mahong phase III lithium hydroxide production line with an annual output of 50000 tons completed by the company last year climbed smoothly and reached full production in 2021q1; In addition, the technological transformation of the production line of battery grade lithium carbonate with an annual output of 17500 tons in Ningdu has been completed, and the production capacity has been expanded to 20000 tons / year.
Continue to deepen the layout of lithium resource product chain and clarify the future development direction
1) upstream lithium resources: the company continues to lock in high-quality lithium resources through equity participation or signing underwriting agreements, broaden diversified supply channels of raw materials, and provide resource guarantee for the development of middle and downstream businesses. ① In terms of lithium clay resources, the company is actively promoting the Sonora lithium clay project in Mexico. At present, the company holds 50% of the shares at the level of Sonora project and is making a tender offer at the level of bacanora, so as to ensure 100% equity capacity of the project and strive to build it into a leading project for lithium extraction from lithium clay in the world. ② In terms of spodumene resources, the company indirectly holds the equity of goulamina spodumene project and obtains the underwriting right by acquiring 50% equity of SPV company in the Netherlands; In addition, recently, the company signed a cooperation agreement with PMI. The company underwrites 49% of the total output of Mount Marion lithium concentrate and 51% of PMI. The two sides agreed that the company will process the spodumene underwritten by PMI and the company will be responsible for sales. ③ In terms of salt lake resources, the company actively promotes the development and construction of cauchari olaroz lithium salt lake project in Argentina. The annual output of 40000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate in phase I is expected to be put into operation in September 2022, and the feasibility study plan for phase II expansion has been launched; Promote the construction of Mariana lithium salt lake project in Argentina at the same time, which has been approved by the local government for environmental impact assessment, and carry out the construction of a plant with an annual output of 20000 tons of lithium chloride; In addition, the company indirectly holds 49% interest in Qinghai Yiliping Salt Lake project through the acquisition of Yili Hongda. At present, Yiliping project has formed an annual production capacity of 10000 tons of lithium carbonate.
2) deep processing of lithium salt in the middle reaches: the company continues to expand the capacity of lithium salt products. At present, it has a capacity of 43000 tons / year of lithium carbonate and 81000 tons / year of lithium hydroxide. ① At the overseas end, the company is building at least 60000 tons of lithium carbonate capacity of cauchari olaroz lithium salt lake project, 20000 tons of lithium chloride capacity of Mariana lithium salt lake project phase I and 50000 tons of lithium hydroxide capacity of Sonora lithium clay project phase I; ② In China, Jiangxi's 50000 ton / year lithium battery new energy material project and Yichun's 7000 ton metal lithium and lithium material project are about to be put into construction. The company plans to form a lithium product supply capacity with an annual output of 300000 tons of LCE by 2025 and a lithium product supply capacity of no less than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of LCE in the future.
3) downstream lithium battery sector: solid state batteries and high-end polymer lithium batteries are the key areas of research and development of the company's battery sector. ① In terms of solid-state batteries, the company has invested and built the first generation solid-state lithium battery R & D pilot production line with an annual output of 0.3gwh. ② In terms of power / energy storage battery, Ganfeng lithium, the holding subsidiary of the company, has built Jiangxi Xinyu 5gwh / a new lithium battery project and Chongqing Liangjiang 10gwh / a new lithium battery technology industrial park and advanced battery research institute project respectively. Among them, Jiangxi Xinyu new lithium battery project has been put into operation in January 2022. When all the projects are successfully put into operation, the company's lithium battery capacity is expected to exceed 20gwh, greatly improving the company's profitability.
4) waste battery recycling: in the future planning, the company will establish a large-scale comprehensive equipment that can recycle 100000 tons of retired lithium batteries every year, and continue to expand its business downstream by expanding the capacity of lithium battery recycling business and its expertise in recycling and reusing retired batteries, so as to realize the sustainable development of the company's business and create diversified sources of income.
Investment advice
We expect that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 35.54/40.5/48.15 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 218.4% / 12.7% / 20.2%; The corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 11.55/13.45/15.63 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 120.8% / 16.4% / 16.2%; PE corresponding to the current share price is 16x / 13X / 12x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Lithium salt price fluctuation risk, downstream demand is less than expected, project progress is less than expected, and overseas policy change risk.
