\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 985 Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) )
Key investment points
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021, and the main financial data are as follows:
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 65.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.19%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.82%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.66%. The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 11.053 billion, an increase of 100.67% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share was 2.04 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%. The weighted average roe was 19.65% (a year-on-year increase of 2.51 PCT)
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 16.456 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 20.12% and a year-on-year increase of 18.15%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.138 billion yuan, an increase of 1.16% month on month and 63.74% year-on-year; The net profit after non deduction was 1.059 billion yuan, an increase of 1.44% month on month and 57.82% year-on-year.
The performance growth is mainly due to the increase in the sales volume and price of main products coal and the sharp increase in the prices of coke and methanol. Specifically:
Coal business: both volume and price rise, and the profit is expected to continue to improve in 2022.
During the reporting period, the company produced 22.58 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, and the external sales volume of commercial coal was 19.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%; The average selling price is 806 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, and the gross profit margin is the same (41%) (the sales caliber does not include domestic coal). Among them, the output of coking coal is 10.59 million tons (accounting for 47% of the total output), the sales volume is 10.91 million tons (accounting for 48% of the total sales volume), the unit price is 1481 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 21%), the gross profit per ton of coal reaches 647 yuan / ton, and the supply contributes 83% of the gross profit. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Huai mine was 3.925 billion yuan, an increase of 2.471 billion yuan (+ 170%) year-on-year. The rise in the cost side is mainly due to the rise in commodity prices and employee salaries.
By quarter, 6.26 million tons of commercial coal were produced in the fourth quarter, an increase of 11% year-on-year and 24% month on month; The external sales volume was 4.94 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, almost unchanged month on month; The average selling price of coal in the fourth quarter was 999 yuan / ton, up 66% year-on-year and 32% month on month; The cost per ton of coal was 582 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 59%, a month on month increase of 27% and a gross profit margin of 42%. In the fourth quarter, the price rose significantly, and the gross profit per ton of coal reached 417 yuan / ton (single quarter year-on-year + 78%, month on month + 39%).
The company’s Xinhu coal mine (3 million tons / year) was officially put into operation in September 2021. Its main products are coking coal and 1 / 3 coke, which will gradually release the output; On February 19, 2022, the company announced that taohutu coal mine was approved. The main coal of taohutu coal mine is high calorific value power coal, with a calorific value of more than 6000 kcal. The designed production capacity of the mine is 8 million tons / year. It is expected to be completed and put into operation during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
The industry is booming, and the company’s profit will be further thickened. The supply and demand of the industry remained tight. Although the price fluctuated sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, it rebounded to a relatively high level recently. The sector price of Huaibei coke refined coal truck has been maintained since it was raised to 2200 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter of last year; The coke price has been stable after rising continuously recently. As of March 30, the price of primary metallurgical coke truck sector produced in Huaibei is 3400 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of coking coal in all links is low. With the improvement of downstream demand margin, the price of coal and coke industry is still supported. The industry may maintain a high outlook, and the profit of the company’s coal and coke business is expected to be further thickened
Coke business: prices rose sharply. During the reporting period, the production of coke was 4.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, the sales volume was 4.08 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, and the sales price was 2646 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 47%. On a quarterly basis, 1.01 million tons of raw coke were sold in the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% and almost the same month on month. The sales volume was 990000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a month on month decrease of 3%; The average selling price of coke in the fourth quarter was 3447 yuan / ton, up 82% year-on-year and 29% month on month. The main cost of coke is washed coal. In 2021, the purchase volume was 5.69 million tons, almost the same year-on-year, and the purchase unit price was 1602 yuan / ton, an increase of 36% year-on-year; In the fourth quarter, the purchase volume was 1.39 million tons, and the purchase unit price was 2178 / ton, up 89% year-on-year and 31% month on month. In the third and fourth quarters of 2021, the price of coal coke continued to rise, the price and cost of coke rose sharply, and the profitability of coke business improved throughout the year. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Linhuan coking was 995 million yuan, an increase of 1.005 billion yuan year-on-year.
Methanol business: prices rose sharply. During the reporting period, the production of methanol was 340000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, the sales volume was 340000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and the sales price was 2259 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 43%. In terms of quarters, 79000 tons of raw methanol were produced in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 24% and a month on month decrease of 1%; The sales volume was 81000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 28% and a month on month increase of 4%; In the fourth quarter, the average selling price of methanol was 2730 yuan / ton, up 55% year-on-year and 20% month on month. Similar to the coke business, it is mainly the performance growth brought by the price rise. The comprehensive utilization project of coke oven gas under construction by the company, with an annual methanol production capacity of 500000 tons, has been put into trial production in December 2021, which will further improve the overall efficiency and scale of chemical business. In November 2021, the company announced the issuance of convertible bonds to raise 3 billion yuan (at present, the application documents have been accepted and fed back by the CSRC), of which 2.3 billion yuan is used to build a Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a methanol to ethanol project, further extend the industrial chain and improve the added value of products.
Stable dividends, with a dividend yield of 4.7%. The company issued the profit distribution plan for 2021. It plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per share, with a total dividend of 1.74 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of 36.33%. Based on the closing price on March 30, the dividend rate is 4.7%. In recent years, the company has maintained a stable dividend, and the dividend ratio will remain no less than 30% from 2022 to 2024.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the prosperity of the industry continues to rise. We expect that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2022 / 23 / 24 will be 6.39 billion yuan, 7.0 billion yuan and 7.43 billion yuan respectively (5.80 billion yuan and 6.22 billion yuan in the previous 2021 / 22), with a year-on-year increase of + 34%, + 9% and + 6%, equivalent to EPS of 2.57/2.82/3.00 yuan / share respectively. At present, the share price of 15.01 yuan (closing price on March 30), corresponding to PE of 5.8/5.3/5.0 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tip: price fluctuation risk. According to the calculation, if the others remain unchanged, if the average price of coal falls by 50 yuan / ton in 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 / 24 will fall by 720 / 7.6 / 800 million yuan respectively; Safety production risk; The progress of the project under construction is lower than expected.
