\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 985 Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) )
Aviation brake faucet, with strong profitability. Starting with friction materials, the company has gradually grown into a leader in the field of aviation braking in China. Its products are widely used in key military equipment such as various types of fighters, aerospace vehicles, tanks and armored vehicles. In 2021, the company extended downstream of the industrial chain and successfully entered the landing gear market. In 2020, through the acquisition of Lantai airlines, the company has the most and complete PMA license for carbon brake discs of civil aviation aircraft in China, closely expanding the horizontal and vertical development of the industrial chain and opening up growth space. The company's revenue / profit CAGR in recent three years is as high as 44% / 45%, and has maintained a gross profit margin of more than 70% for a long time, with strong profitability. The loading volume of military aircraft in the 14th five-year plan + domestic substitution in the civil aviation brake Market + delivery volume of domestic large aircraft promoted the rapid growth of the demand for aviation brake products. At the same time, thanks to the consumable properties of brake products, with the increase of use frequency, the demand for stock replacement will also accelerate. With excellent card position and layout, the company's performance is expected to enter the rapid growth channel.
Benefit from the large volume of transport aircraft and fighters + replacement of fighter stock + business expansion of landing gear, sign a ten-year civil aviation procurement agreement, and jointly develop military and civil business. Jun: 1) the competition pattern of wheels and brakes is good. In the front loading market, the transport aircraft with higher unit value (12 wheels) is expected to enter the volume cycle. In terms of afterloading market, the first round of maintenance will soon be carried out for the warplanes loaded at the end of the 13th five year plan. Then, as the 14th five year plan warplanes enter the replacement period, they will still have enough stamina. At the same time, higher intensity training will also speed up the replacement frequency; 2) The landing gear is an integrated product, and the value of a single machine is higher, about 40 ~ 100 times that of the brake disc. In 2021, the company's landing gear achieved a breakthrough in revenue and successfully opened a broad market space. Min: the company has the ability to maintain 67 pieces of 16 aircraft types, including Boeing and Airbus. At the same time, it has quickly entered the civil aviation market with a number of PMA civil aviation licensing qualifications of its subsidiary Lantai airlines. It has signed a ten-year purchase agreement with Hainan Airlines and Xiangpeng airlines. We estimate that the post market scale of China's civil aviation brake pads will be 3.9 billion yuan in 2020. At present, all of them are monopolized by overseas enterprises, and the civil aviation business is expected to become a new growth point of the company's performance.
Preparations for the listing of Beijing Yuhan subsidiary were launched. Jinghanyu has a mature full spectrum electronic component testing system. Its customers cover large scientific research institutes such as aerospace, aviation, electronics, weapons, ships and Chinese Academy of Sciences. There is a large space in the future. At present, the company holds 45.90% equity of jinghanyu and has started the preparation for the spin off and listing of jinghanyu.
We predict that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.68 yuan, 2.46 yuan and 3.26 yuan respectively. With reference to the 22-year average valuation of comparable companies, the corresponding target price is 98.4 yuan, and the buy rating is given for the first time.
Risk tips
The confirmation of military product loading and replacement demand or order revenue is less than the market expectation; The development progress of civil products market is less than the market expectation; The risk of military procurement price decline; Risk of accounts receivable; Changes in assumptions affect the calculation results.
