Key investment points
Recent market conditions
Issuance achievement rate: 1.5% According to the rating, the issuance success rates of AAA, AA +, AA and AA certificates of deposit in the fifth week of March were 92%, 55%, 69% and 48% respectively. The achievement rate of AAA, AA +, AA certificates of deposit decreased, and the achievement rate of AA certificates of deposit was the same as that of last week. 2. In terms of banks, the achievement rates of deposit certificates issued by joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks were 95%, 70% and 92% respectively. The achievement rates of joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks decreased, while the achievement rate of rural commercial banks increased.
Credit spread: 1 According to the rating, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA +, AA -, AA -, a +, a – and A-grade inter-bank certificates of deposit for three months in the fifth week of March were 1.09bps, 6bps, 15bps, 27bps, 60bps, 93bps and 126bps respectively 2. According to the bank, the credit spread of certificates of deposit issued by urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks is 24bps.
Overview of issuing market
Interest rates of interbank certificates of deposit for each term: the interest rates of interbank certificates of deposit for each term in the fifth week of March are:
2.39% in 1 month, 2.48% in 3 months and 2.62% in 6 months. Compared with last week, the issuing interest rates of 1-month, 3-month and 6-month certificates of deposit decreased by – 7bps, – 3bps and – 3bps respectively.
Number of issuance: in the fifth week of March, 384 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, raising 249.1 billion yuan, and the issuance scale decreased compared with last week. As of April 1, there were 16790 interbank certificates of deposit in stock, totaling 145862 billion yuan.
Term structure of issuance: compared with the previous week, in the fifth week of March, the proportion of issuance of 1-month and 3-month interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the proportion of issuance of 6-month, 9-month and 1-year interbank certificates of deposit increased.
Structure of issuing entities: compared with the previous week, among the commercial banks issuing interbank certificates of deposit in the fifth week of March, the proportion of state-owned commercial banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased, and the proportion of joint-stock banks decreased. Urban commercial banks, state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock banks and rural commercial banks accounted for 35.3%, 28.6%, 26.2% and 8.3% respectively.
Issuing bank: in the fifth week of March, China Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) issued inter-bank certificates of deposit of 39.7 billion yuan, ranking first, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank issued 23.2 billion yuan, ranking second.
Overview of holders of interbank certificates of deposit
Holder structure: by the end of February 2022, the total amount of certificates of deposit entrusted in Shanghai clearing house was 145133 billion yuan, an increase over the previous month. Among them, the broad fund held 8222.5 billion yuan, accounting for 56.7%, an increase over the previous month; Commercial banks held 5143.6 billion yuan, accounting for 35.4%, down from the previous month; Non bank institutions and others held 1147.2 billion yuan, accounting for 7.9%, down from the previous month.
Overview of Bank Holdings: by the end of February 2022, rural commercial banks had held certificates of deposit of 2295.7 billion yuan, accounting for 44.6%, an increase over the previous month; State owned commercial banks held 1087.7 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 21.1%, an increase over the previous month; City commercial banks held 511 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 9.9%, an increase over the previous month; Policy banks held 487.6 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 9.5%, down from the previous month; Stock banks held 162.6 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 3.2%, down from the previous month.
Risk warning: unexpected changes in regulatory policies and unexpected exposure of credit risks.
