Report summary:
From the perspective of the global epidemic, the newly diagnosed cases in industrial countries such as Vietnam, South Korea and Germany rebounded significantly in March. In March, the epidemic situation in China warmed up in stages, and the daily average number of newly confirmed cases in China rose from 89 in the first week to 1520 in the fourth week; The number of new asymptomatic infections increased from 62 in the first week to 5967 in the fourth week.
As of March 31, there were 1.36 million new weekly and daily confirmed cases worldwide, slightly lower than the 1.58 million cases at the end of February. Among them, the epidemic situation in industrial countries such as Vietnam, South Korea and Germany has been repeated locally. The latest weekly daily average recorded 110000 cases (70000 cases at the end of February), 260000 cases (150000 cases at the end of February) and 190000 cases (170000 cases at the end of February) respectively. The average daily diagnosis in the UK also rose from 30000 cases at the end of February to the latest 90000 cases.
In March, 89, 529, 2019, 1803 and 1520 new weekly and daily confirmed cases were recorded respectively, and 85 cases were confirmed in the last week of February; Local asymptomatic infections were recorded in 62, 638, 1511, 3130 and 5967 cases on a weekly and daily basis. It is worth noting that the number of asymptomatic infections increased to 6651 on March 30 and 19 in the last week of February. On December 12, the national covid-19 pneumonia epidemic prevention and control video conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council pointed out that it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the current situation of epidemic prevention and control, and adhere to the general strategy of “external prevention input and internal prevention rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic clearing”.
The coal consumption data of the eight southern provinces first increased and then decreased, which clearly shows that the epidemic has interrupted the original repair trend. On March 11, 15 and 21, it rose to 1.819 million tons, 1.87 million tons and 1.892 million tons respectively, and the data fell to 1.768 million tons on March 28. The daily consumption of this month is still in the negative growth range year-on-year, and the average value in the first four weeks is roughly equivalent to 96% of the data in the same period last year. 2. According to the market feedback, due to the impact of more port closures and weakening downstream demand, the storage accumulation rate of the port has accelerated in the near future compared with the first half of the month.
According to the data of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) coal network, the coal consumption data of power generation in the middle and early days of March rose steadily on the basis of 1.713 million tons on February 28 and 1.772 million tons on March 3. On March 11, March 15 and March 21, the coal consumption of power generation in the eight southern provinces recorded 1819, 187 and 1892 thousand tons respectively. Affected by the epidemic in the latter ten days, the daily consumption fell back to 1.768 million tons on March 28. The data of the first four weeks is roughly equivalent to 85% of the monthly average of 2.511 million tons in January and 96% of the average of 1.904 million tons in the same period last year. The national development and Reform Commission said recently that it will continue to strengthen its work with relevant departments, main coal producing areas and key enterprises, further release high-quality coal production capacity, strengthen coal mine production scheduling, and strive to stabilize the national daily coal output at more than 12 million tons. In addition, according to the coal market network, the national temperature generally warmed up in April, the terminal daily consumption fell seasonally, the proportion of clean energy power supply such as hydropower increased in spring, and the change of port inventory remains to be observed.
In the first four weeks of March, the operating rate of the industry was different, and the industry whose supply chain was not easy to be disturbed maintained the upward trend. The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces in China recorded 78.2%, roughly rising to the same period last year; The operating rate of coking enterprises rebounded month on month; Midstream chemicals such as PTA, the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, the operating rate of Shandong local refinery and the operating rate of styrene decreased year-on-year; The operating rate of semi steel tires of downstream vehicles gradually picked up after mid February, and 74.5% in the last week of March was at the high point of the year, which also exceeded that of the same period last year. The operating rate of all steel tires in the fourth week was 59.2%, significantly higher than 52.8% in the last week of February and lower than 78.0% in the same period last year.
The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries are different. By the end of last year, the percentage of blast furnace production was 78.8pct%, which was higher than that of the main steel plant in the first four weeks of last year, and the percentage of blast furnace production was still higher than that in the last four weeks of last year; The operating rate of coking enterprises recorded 77.2%, up 6.1pct compared with the same period last year The operating rate of PTA Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was flat month on month, falling from 61.8% at the end of February to 61.5% in the fourth week of March; The operating rate of Shandong local refinery remained weak, down 7.6pct month on month compared with February and down 21.2pct compared with the same period last year Styrene operating rate recorded 74.5%, down 4.3 PCT month on month from the end of February The relatively low operating load in the downstream of the chemical industry chain is due to the weak terminal demand under the influence of the epidemic, the low profit of the industrial chain and the increase of maintenance of most devices under low processing costs. In the first four weeks of March, the operating rate of automobile semi steel tire recorded 72.0%, 69.2%, 72.2% and 74.5% respectively. The reading in the last week was at the high point of the year (40.0% and 55.3% in January and February respectively), which was higher than 73.4% in the same period last year. In the first four weeks of March, the operating rate of all steel tires recorded 61.9%, 52.0%, 56.6% and 59.2% respectively, and the reading in the last week of February was 52.8%, lower than 78.0% in the same period last year.
Affected by the local epidemic, China’s subway passenger transport has dropped significantly, corresponding to the rise of social distance and the shortening of residents’ living radius. As of March 31, the monthly average passenger volume of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan and Nanjing was – 10.3%, – 54.0%, – 19.8%, – 19.6% and – 38.0% respectively year-on-year. Historical data show that subway passenger volume is closely related to urban social consumption data.
In March, the subway passenger volume in nine major cities in China generally fell, and the latest subway passenger volume in Shanghai fell sharply to a record low. On March 31, the latest passenger volume of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou recorded 9.06 million people (7.96 million people per day in March), 660000 people (4.79 million people per day in March) and 7.69 million people (7.14 million people per day in March). The monthly average year-on-year data recorded – 10.3%, – 54.0% and – 19.8% respectively. The passenger volume of Wuhan and Nanjing decreased by 19.6% and 38.0% respectively year-on-year. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been unexpectedly repeated. As a shadow indicator of residents’ living radius and social distance, the shortening of residents’ living radius will undoubtedly affect consumption and service industry.
Relevant indicators of urban logistics decreased significantly. In March, the national vehicle freight flow index was – 2.6% year-on-year (7.2% year-on-year in December last year and 6.2% year-on-year in January February this year), of which Shanghai, Jilin and Guangdong were – 6.8%, – 42.3% and – 11.4% respectively. In March, the throughput index of the public logistics park decreased week by week, with a monthly average of – 18.1% year-on-year.
In March, the national vehicle freight flow index, the throughput of public logistics parks and the throughput index of distribution centers of major express enterprises fell seasonally. As of March 31, the national vehicle freight flow index and the throughput of Public Logistics Park recorded 94.9 and 89.8 respectively, and the monthly average recorded 109.7 and 102.2 respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the monthly average fell by – 2.6% (the combined year-on-year figures of December last year and January February this year were 7.2% and 6.2% respectively) and – 18.1% (the combined year-on-year figures of December last year and January February this year were – 10.5% and – 10.3% respectively).
Historical data show that the above indicators are closely related to the intensity of urban economic activities and the kinetic energy of residents’ consumption. The vehicle freight volume indexes of Shanghai, Jilin and Guangdong, which are seriously affected by the epidemic at the structural end, are significantly under pressure, and the monthly average is – 6.8%, – 42.3% and – 11.4% respectively year-on-year. As of March 31, the average throughput of distribution centers of major express enterprises in China recorded 96.0, down 18.3% from the same period last year.
On March 30, the city’s real estate sales fell to a new low in the same period since 2012, with an average daily transaction area of 306000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 49%. From December last year to February this year, the average daily transaction data were 517000 m3, 398000 m3 and 255000 m3 respectively. In March, the land transaction premium rate was low.
As of March 31, the average daily area of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities across the country had recorded 306000 square meters, of which the average daily transactions in the first four weeks had recorded 340000 square meters, 296000 square meters, 260000 square meters and 330000 square meters respectively. Compared with 255000 m3 in February, the average monthly turnover rose only 19.8%, and the month on month growth rate in the first month after the festival in recent ten years was 47% – 280%; The transaction volume of this month is also significantly lower than that of the same period in history, only slightly higher than 279000 m3 in March 2011; Compared with 517000 m3 in December last year and 398000 m3 in January, it is still weak. Generally speaking, the first and second tier real estate sales gradually warmed up in the first month after the festival, but the decline in the transaction area of the first, second and third tier cities expanded week by week. The year-on-year growth rate of the transaction area of the first, second and third tier cities in the first four weeks of March was – 46%, – 49%, – 49%. The land transaction premium rate continued to be depressed, and the readings in the first four weeks recorded 3.0%, 5.4%, 2.4% and 2.1% respectively.
4. In mid March, the China Hong Kong Association monitored that the foreign trade cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, and the domestic trade decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. In March, South Korea’s exports reached US $63.5 billion, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year. In January and February, South Korea’s exports were 15.5% and 20.6% year-on-year respectively.
The China Hong Kong Association announced that the monitored port foreign trade throughput fell by 4.2% year-on-year in mid March (March 11-20) (the readings in February were – 7.6%, – 4.3% and 2.1% respectively). The export amount of South Korea in the first 20 days of March was US $63.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2% and a year-on-year growth rate of 17%. From December last year to February this year, the monthly export growth rate of South Korea was 18.3%, 15.5% and 20.6%, and the annual export growth rate of last year was 25.7%. As of March 25, China’s export container freight index CCFI recorded 3275, with a year-on-year growth rate of 75.7%, roughly unchanged from the level at the end of January.
On the first 27 days of March, the average daily retail volume of passenger cars of 5 passenger Federation caliber was 39000, down 18% year-on-year (10% year-on-year in February). The association pointed out that due to the recent regional recurrence of the epidemic, the sales volume of major manufacturers fell significantly in the third week.
According to the passenger Federation, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars on the 27th of March was 39000, down 18% year-on-year; Among them, the retail sales in the first four weeks recorded – 13%, 3%, – 29% and – 29% respectively year-on-year. The epidemic spread in some parts of the country still restricts the recovery of demand. At the same time, in view of the reduction of working days in the first week of March, the performance of retail end showed a partial decline. It is worth noting that affected by the spread of the epidemic, the sales volume of major manufacturers in some regions fell significantly in the third week. Combined with the impact of traditional sales off-season and other factors, the average daily wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 48000 on the first 27 March, down 12% year-on-year.
At the Chinese level, the new energy technology route is determined, the terminal penetration rate continues to increase, and consumers’ demand for new energy vehicles continues to increase. Wind data shows that the expansion of new energy demand drives the prices of electrolyte solvent and DMC silicone up, while lithium hexafluorophosphate stabilizes at a high price due to the high price and tight supply of raw material propylene oxide. As of March 28, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate recorded 495000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month, up 158% year-on-year.
Among the domestic demand pricing commodities in March, the rising varieties were mainly coking coal and rebar, and the monthly coking coal futures price increased by 41.6% month on month; While rebar and power coal recorded 5.6% and 2.3% month on month respectively. Cement prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the national cement price index rose 2.8% month on month.
In March, Chinese commodities were mainly volatile. The price monitoring of 50 important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field shows that the prices of 24 products rose and 24 products fell in the middle of the year. As of March 31, the myspic composite steel price index recorded 188.7 points, up 4.0% month on month compared with the end of last year, up 0.9% compared with the same period last year. Rebar prices recorded 5115 yuan / ton, up 8.5% month on month. Coking coal and thermal coal futures prices recorded – 41.6% and 2.3% month on month, respectively. As of March 31, the national cement price index recorded 172.8 points, up 2.8% month on month.
In March, global priced commodities surged and fell, but most commodities still closed up for the whole month. Oil distribution prices rose 6.1% month on month. The CCPI index of chemical products prices was 4.9% month on month, among which the rise of phosphorus fertilizer, l sulfuric acid and other pesticides was the top. Most non-ferrous metals closed higher, while LME spot copper rose 3.6% month on month; LME spot aluminum rose 1.5% month on month; LME spot prices of zinc, lead, tin and nickel recorded 15.0%, 1.3%, – 3.0% and 32.3% month on month respectively. The prices of precious metals such as gold and silver also rose month on month.
As of March 31, the price of IPE oil distribution futures recorded US $107.3/barrel, up 6.1% month on month and 68.8% compared with the same period in 2021.
In March, the oil price broke through the highest level in nearly eight years: the pace of overseas resumption of work and production accelerated in the first half of the year, the uncertainty of Russia Ukraine conflict pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the total inventory of EIA crude oil and petroleum products decreased continuously; In the second half of the year, the final agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue was close to being reached, the geopolitical uncertainty cooled down, and the oil price center once fell below US $100. In March, the chemical price index CCPI recorded 5794 points, up 4.9% month on month, among which the top varieties include phosphate fertilizer, sulfuric acid and other varieties. The prices of ethylene glycol and PTA in the polyester industry chain recorded 8.3% and 8.0% month on month. The price of crude oil at the cost side is strong, the start-up of loom at the downstream terminal is still at a low level, and the accumulation pattern is further revealed. PP and PVC futures prices recorded 3.2% and 8.1% month on month respectively. In March, the start-up of downstream product enterprises was relatively low, there was no new maintenance of PVC in the short term, and there was still room for profit; The futures price of natural rubber recorded 13530 yuan / ton, down 0.8% month on month. In late March, the commencement of Chinese tire enterprises increased week by week, and the phenological weather conditions in China’s production areas were normal.
As of March 31, LME spot copper closed at US $10337 / ton, up 3.6% from the end of last year. Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the import and export rhythm of Russian copper concentrate raw materials slowed down, and China’s electrolytic copper inflection point was relatively early after the festival. LME spot aluminum closed at US $3503 / ton, up 1.5% month on month. Social inventories at home and abroad were low, superimposed by rising market concerns about Russian aluminum supply. Most of the other non-ferrous metals closed up, with LME spot prices of zinc, lead, tin and nickel recording 15.0%, 1.3%, – 3.0% and 32.3% month on month respectively. Under the influence of geopolitical conflict, precious metal prices still rose. Comex gold and silver futures prices recorded $1939 and $25.1 per ounce respectively, with month on month readings of 2.0% and 3.2%.
Pork prices continued to be weak. In March, the average wholesale price of pork of the Ministry of agriculture recorded 18.3 yuan / kg, down 1.6% month on month from the end of last month. The loose supply pattern continued after the festival, and the pace of pig slaughter was accelerated. In March, the Ministry of agriculture focused on monitoring the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables, rising 4.6% month on month. Grain prices such as wheat and japonica rice are relatively strong. Yiwu Commodity Index, a shadow index of non food items, rebounded slightly month on month.
The spread of the epidemic in March led to a significant decline in residents’ Consumption Willingness and consumption ability. In the latter half of the year, the pace of marketing in major breeding provinces slowed down, and the overall market trading sentiment was depressed. As of March 31, the average wholesale price of pork of the Ministry of agriculture recorded 18.3 yuan / kg, down 1.6% month on month. The overall supply of vegetables in China is tight: the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables rose by 4.6% (previous value – 5.6%) month on month, and the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits rose by 3.3% (previous value – 2.7%). We mentioned in the previous report: in the medium term, there is no basis for a sharp rise in vegetable prices, and there may be a significant easing of pressure after passing the seasonal peak. As of March 31, the upward slope of grain prices has expanded, and the warming situation in Russia and Ukraine has promoted the prices of high-quality wheat, japonica rice and corn to rise by 7.2%, 4.2% and 4.1% respectively. Yiwu Commodity Index, a shadow index of non food items, rebounded slightly month on month.
Core hypothetical risk: the economic downturn exceeds expectations; External environmental impact exceeded expectations
