March car market, moving forward in thorns.
Recently, the passenger Federation released forecast data, and the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in March is expected to be 1.58 million. In its view, covid-19 epidemic has spread in many places since this month, which has had an impact on normal automobile production and sales.
However, the shell finance reporter of the Beijing News learned that the impact has not yet been transmitted to the terminal. "At present, 70% of the cars in the store have cars in stock, and the ordering cycle has not changed much." Recently, the salesperson of a 4S store of Beijing FAW Volkswagen Audi told shell finance reporters that the cash discount in the store is about 20%, but if the shutdown time of Changchun factory is long, it may lead to fewer cars and the discount may be reduced.
For some car companies to stop production, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, said that the shutdown will indeed have a certain impact, but enterprises generally have inventory support, so the loss at the retail end should be small.
does the 4s store have any cars in stock? A clerk said "I won't wait too long"
"Due to the change of preferential policies, there are more people ordering cars near the first quarter, and there are not many cars in the store. For example, there are no cars in stock for individual models of BMW 3 series, so you need to wait until April to pick up the car." Recently, in an interview with shell finance reporters, although the staff of a BMW 4S store in Beijing said that the inventory was limited, there was no need to worry. "At present, the frame number can be seen, which means that the car has been basically completed and won't wait too long."
Since then, the staff of a FAW Toyota in Chaoyang District, Beijing said, "at present, not all models have existing cars. For example, there are existing cars in Asia Dragon store, but RAV4 Rongfang has only two-wheel drive and hybrid models, and other models need to be ordered." The staff member said that at present, the epidemic in Changchun is serious, and the collection cycle of car ordering cannot be clarified. However, there is still a cash discount for car ordering, and RAV4 Rongfang can offer a discount of 17000 yuan.
It is reported that FAW Toyota Changchun factory mainly produces RAV4 Rongfang and Lingfang models. Previously, it was reported that in order to cooperate with epidemic prevention, FAW Changchun's five vehicle factories have planned to stop production since March 13, and the restart time of the production line will be determined according to the overall situation of epidemic prevention and control and relevant provincial and municipal requirements. In addition, BMW Brilliance Shenyang factory also cooperated with the epidemic prevention and control and suspended production from March 24.
As for the impact on terminal sales, the staff of a 4S store said that at the beginning of the year, the manufacturers had determined the annual sales task and began to deliver goods in batches to the 4S store. Coupled with the off-season sales during the Spring Festival holiday in February, the dealers now have a certain inventory of existing vehicles.
According to the analysis of the passenger Association, since this month, the covid-19 epidemic has spread in many places. More than 20 prefecture level cities have taken silent management measures in the whole region or key areas, and nearly 30 prefecture level cities have medium risk areas, which has an impact on normal automobile production and sales. Shanghai will carry out a new round of block and grid nucleic acid screening from March 28 to April 5. Pudong and Puxi will be sealed off by the Huangpu River. The production of automobile factories in Shanghai has also attracted attention.
Shell finance reporter noted that on March 29, Li Bin, CEO of Weilai automobile, said that affected by the epidemic and climbing production will take some time, and the recent delivery of et7 will be relatively small.
In view of the impact of the epidemic on car enterprises, the relevant person in charge of Volkswagen China told shell finance reporters, "the status is updated every day; on March 30, Changchun stopped production, and Shanghai Anting normal production."
In this regard, the China Automobile Circulation Association said that dealers entered the replenishment stage in the fourth week of February. At the same time, some manufacturers tended to reduce the inventory, coupled with the impact of the epidemic in many places, resulting in a significant increase in the inventory level of dealers.
Mei Songlin, a senior analyst in the automotive industry, told shell finance reporters that for those auto enterprises that have been in full production, one day of shutdown will lose one day's output and sales. For those auto enterprises with insufficient capacity utilization, the impact of shutdown on output and sales should be limited.
Referring to the situation affecting the retail end, Mei Songlin said that referring to the first half of 2020, the consumption restrained by the epidemic was basically released in the second half of the year.
first quarter is expected to show steady growth
According to the data of the passenger Federation, in the first week of March this year, the average daily retail sales of the overall narrow passenger car market was 37000, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, an increase of 42% compared with the average value in the first to second weeks of February this year. In the second week of March, the overall narrow passenger car market retail daily average of 46000 vehicles, an increase of 3% year-on-year, an increase of 75% compared with the average value in the first to second weeks of February this year.
Affected by the slowdown in production and the closure of terminal stores, the overall narrow passenger car market retail daily average of 35000 vehicles in the third week of March, down 29% year-on-year, and 25% lower than that in the third week of February this year.
According to the analysis of the association, covid-19 epidemic has spread in many places since March, and the market trend in the third week is seriously abnormal. Due to the static production and suspension of consumption in some areas, the sales volume of various manufacturers has dropped significantly in a large area. The passenger Federation preliminarily estimated that the sales loss caused by the epidemic in the car market this month was about 200000.
"Generally speaking, March is the starting month for the booming auto market in a year. It not only plays a decisive role in the sales volume in the first quarter, but also a key month connecting the preceding and the following." Mei Songlin said that the repeated situation of the current epidemic in many provinces and cities across the country inevitably affected the automobile production and sales in March.
Cui Dongshu said that the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars in March is expected to be 1.58 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; As there are many areas affected by the epidemic and the epidemic is still in dynamic change, the specific impact of the auto market in March still needs to be further observed.
In view of the overall development in the first quarter, Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Industry Association, said that from the perspective of the development trend of automobiles in the first quarter, with the continuous implementation of a series of more substantial tax cuts and fee reduction policies to help enterprises solve their difficulties, automobile enterprises also continue to accelerate the pace of new product listing. It is expected that the automobile market is expected to show a steady growth trend in the first quarter; But at the same time, we should also see the existing adverse effects and be cautious and optimistic.
In fact, from the beginning of the global outbreak in 2020 to 2021, the supply chain crisis broke out due to the shortage of chips and the continuous price of raw materials. The supply chain crisis in 2022 has not been improved. With the recurrence of the epidemic and the instability of the supply chain, the pressure on automobile enterprises has increased.
In March, several international car companies also suspended production. At the beginning of this month, the logistics was interrupted due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the shortage of key parts produced in Ukraine and other countries was serious. The production lines of major global automobile enterprises in Russia and other countries were under pressure. Some automobile enterprises abandoned the Russian market due to the sanctions imposed by Russia, so as to make choices in reducing production, stopping production and transferring production lines.
In addition, Toyota Motor once said that due to the strong earthquake in the offshore waters of Fukushima Prefecture, it had an impact on parts suppliers and stopped the operation of some Chinese factories from March 21 to 23; Subaru also said on the 18th that the company's three factories in Japan and China would stop operation for two days.
AFS, an auto industry data forecasting company, showed that due to the shortage of chips, the cumulative production reduction in the global auto market this year was about 1254800; Among them, the cumulative production reduction in China's auto market remained unchanged for two consecutive weeks, accounting for 5.7% of the cumulative production reduction in the global auto market; Throughout the year, AFS expects the cumulative production reduction in the global auto market this year to climb to 2.017 million.
However, it is said that this year's passive demand will accelerate the recovery of people's livelihood, and the auto library will actively switch to the deterministic one. According to the estimation of passenger car demand from January to February, the annual growth rate of passenger cars in 2022 is about 9.7%, higher than the upper limit of - 5% to 7.3% in the prediction range; Looking forward to March, the industry is expected to grow by - 3.1% to 9.44% year-on-year, and the performance is expected to weaken slightly in the second quarter, close to 7% in the whole year.
Mei Songlin told shell finance reporters that passive destocking may mean that auto enterprises take the initiative to reduce inventory, reduce procurement or sell quickly because of cash flow pressure. In view of many uncertain factors such as the current epidemic, ensuring cash flow is the top priority.
