The civil aviation safety record is lost, and the industry supply is expected to shrink. On March 21, 2022, a Boeing 737800 passenger plane of China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) subordinate Yunnan company crashed near Teng County, Wuzhou City, Guangxi Province while performing the Kunming Guangzhou flight mission. Referring to the subsequent impact of historical passenger transport accidents, the China Eastern Airlines crash is expected to cause a phased contraction under the strong supervision of the industry’s supply side and a decline driven by panic on the demand side. Before the incident, China’s civil aviation industry maintained a safe flight record for nearly 12 years. The last accident was that an e-190 passenger plane of henan airlines caught fire and exploded when landing in Yichun City, Heilongjiang Province on August 24, 2010. The aviation industry index fell 2.75% the next day after the accident. Henan Airlines at the supply end was ordered to stop operation and subsequently entered bankruptcy proceedings; On the demand side, the passenger volume of China’s line fell 14.21% month on month to 20.927 million people. Before the Yichun air crash, on November 21, 2004, a bombardier crj-200lr airliner of China Eastern Airlines crashed into the city after taking off in Baotou, Inner Mongolia. The aviation industry index fell by 1.20% the next day after the accident. The Civil Aviation Administration of the supply side asked the national Bombardier CRJ series aircraft to be grounded for comprehensive inspection. 12 responsible persons such as the general manager and chairman of China Eastern Airlines were punished. The national civil aviation passenger volume at the demand side fell by about 10% in the following month of the year. The aviation industry index fell by 1.50% the next day after the China Eastern Airlines incident, and the supply side is expected to usher in strong supervision. China Eastern Airlines has grounded all its aircraft of the same type from the next day, and said that it has carried out a comprehensive investigation of potential safety hazards. For the civil aviation industry, it is expected to usher in a large-scale safety rectification. Considering that the civil aviation passenger transport network has been highly mature, and the flight frequency and travel mode penetration have increased significantly, In addition, China Eastern Airlines, as the head aviation company, accounts for a relatively high proportion of flights. Combined with the factors that Boeing 737 accounts for 35% of China Eastern Airlines’ fleet and more than 40% of China’s civil aviation capacity, the contraction caused by this round of safety supervision is expected to be higher than that caused by the previous two air disasters; On the demand side, due to the factors such as the high-speed rail has basically matured the substitution conditions for civil aviation in the medium and short-distance flights, and the rapid spread of panic in the mobile Internet era, the contraction degree of civil aviation passenger traffic in the short term is expected to be much higher than that in the previous two air disasters. In addition to the negative impact of the accident, civil aviation is still under pressure from the epidemic control. In February this year, the passenger volume and passenger turnover of China’s civil aviation only recovered to 58.14% and 50.59% of the 2019 level respectively. Superimposed on the repeated epidemic in many places across the country in March, the demand side of the travel chain is further put pressure, and the inflection point of civil aviation recovery is expected to be further delayed.
Risk warning: the negative impact of the accident continues to exceed expectations; The degree of epidemic control is less than expected; The recovery of travel intention is less than expected; The public’s confidence in civil aviation was damaged more than expected; Safety accidents continue to occur in the travel chain.
