Today (April 1), the three major indexes opened low and went high, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes rose nearly 1%. In terms of sectors, the concept of post epidemic recovery rose collectively, with hotels and restaurants, duty-free shops, scenic spot tourism, airport shipping and other sectors leading the rise. Among them, the concept of duty-free shops set off a wave of price limit. As of the close, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) , Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development (Group) Ltd(000011) , Hainan Haiqi Transportation Group Co.Ltd(603069) , Nanning Department Store Co.Ltd(600712) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) .
Note: the sectors with the highest gains today (as of the closing on April 1)
the epidemic repair line after is favored by the market
In terms of news, it was recently reported that in the first two months of this year, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan reached 12.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%. Among them, tax-free sales reached 11.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%; The number of duty-free shoppers reached 2126600, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Since March, the impact of the epidemic in some parts of China has been repeated. Hainan has been affected by the epidemic, and tax-free sales on outlying islands are facing a certain impact. However, analysts believe that the short-term impact does not change the logic of long-term development, and the tax-free industry is expected to accelerate its recovery with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation.
East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that the scattered recurrence of the epidemic not only has a negative impact on the passenger flow into the island, but also has an impact on the normal operation of some duty-free stores. The short-term negative impact does not change the long-term development logic of industrial policy support + rapid improvement of its own service quality the state has issued the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan, which shows the importance it attaches to the development of tourism and tax-free industry. At the same time, it has issued relief policies such as tax relief to support the development of tourism, catering, hotel, tax-free and other industries seriously affected by the epidemic, providing strong support for the recovery of the prosperity of corresponding industries
Boosted by the expected improvement, the dilemma reversal related sectors have been favored by the market since this year Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that from Q4 last year to the first half of this year, the main strategy of industry allocation was mainly dilemma reversal. The back test of historical data shows that the six most preferred companies in the market each year are basically ranked as follows: accelerated growth ≈ sustained high growth ≈ decelerating growth - low decline dilemma reversal decelerating growth - high decline low-speed stability. There were too many companies whose growth rate broke out last year, so we focused on the first three sectors, and the growth rate decreased to varying degrees this year. Therefore, the market began to pay attention to the fourth sector from Q4 last year, that is, dilemma reversal.
pig cycle continues to be hotly debated, and consumer electronics is expected to reverse
Recently, some theme speculation has come to an end, the market style has been switched, and the main line market is unknown In terms of strategy and policy, we have pointed out that we have reversed the two directions of high-end and manufacturing. Among them, dilemma reverses the direction, including midstream manufacturing, such as consumer electronics, TMT soft technology, pig cycle, etc. . The common characteristics of these industries are that the performance is in the process of clearing, the organization is low, the chip structure is good, and the valuation is in the historical depth value range. Once the price of upstream raw materials drops and the pressure factors such as capacity clearing are relieved, the stock price will have a strong cyclical recovery power.
When to reverse the pig cycle has always been the focus of the market. With the rapid rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, the cost of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal is further pushed up, and the breeding enterprises continue to lose money. At the same time, the overall pig supply is still in the stage of surplus, and the pork price continues to be depressed Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that pig prices fluctuated downward and feed costs rose, accelerating the elimination of production capacity. At present, the worst performance of Chinese listed companies has passed, and breeding stocks are facing emotional and performance repair. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the pig breeding sector, such as Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , COFCO Jiakang, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , etc.
In addition, in terms of consumer electronics, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that under the previous constraints of multiple factors, the change cycle of consumers has been prolonged, and the operation of subdivided sectors has continued to be under pressure. At present, the sector has priced the implied pessimistic expectations, and the industry's relative all-a valuation has entered the bottom of history and fell below the most pessimistic 18q4 level. Looking ahead, smartphone shipments are expected to resume growth in the second half of the year, the current channel inventory remains low, and the cost side, economy and epidemic situation are also expected to improve in the second half of the year. Folding screen, automotive electronics and AR / VR at the starting point of the innovation cycle are about to break out. traditional consumer electronics enterprises have card position advantages, which is similar to giving implicit call options to the current sector, so that the current industry has better configuration cost performance and is expected to gradually enter the reversal range
