Main points
Macro view:
1. The impact of the current epidemic in China has confused the market's expectation of economic growth this year, but with the passage of time, the economic expectation may become stronger and stronger.
2. After the adjustment of energy policies in Europe, the growth rate of global capital expenditure is expected to accelerate upward. Under the background of relatively stable energy prices, China's exports are expected to exceed expectations.
3. The US economic recovery faces energy constraints. Whether the US stagflation is sustainable needs to pay attention to the direction of its energy policy.
Market view:
1. Real estate has the characteristics of economic policy tools and is still in the downward expectation for a long time. Pay attention to the risks after the rise of the real estate chain.
2. The growth sector has entered the period of strategic layout. It needs to rebound in the short term, with appropriate cost performance in the medium term, and will benefit from the slowdown of economic growth in the long term.
3. The long-term coexistence and steady growth with the virus are expected to improve the medium and long-term expectation of consumption.
Optimistic about the sector:
1. Be optimistic about new energy, food and beverage, military industry, coal, central enterprises, real estate property leaders and traditional Chinese medicine.
2. Be optimistic about CSI 300, Hong Kong stock Internet technology index and Nasdaq 100 index.
Market resumption: the overall decline of A-Shares this month, and all major indexes fell. In terms of index valuation, the valuations of major indexes have decreased to varying degrees, with the largest decline in the valuation of gem index; The price earnings ratio of Kechuang 50 is at the lowest quantile in history.
Style performance: all large, medium and small cap stocks fell this month, down 7.79%, 8.30% and 7.40% respectively. In terms of valuation, all valuation sectors decreased this month. The high school undervalued sector decreased by 6.04%, 9.61% and 3.91% respectively this month.
Industry performance: the sector fell more than rose, led by the coal industry, with an increase of 6.50%, and the household appliance industry led the decline, with a decrease of 13.67%.
Short term market sentiment: this month, northbound funds suffered a significant net outflow of 63.564 billion (data as of March 27). From the perspective of changes in the number of shares held by the industry, the number of shares held by the building decoration, power equipment and real estate industries increased significantly, while the number of shares held by the steel, non bank finance and banking industries decreased relatively greatly. The main inflow industries of funds going north are: non-ferrous metals, public utilities, building decoration, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and real estate; The main outflow industries are: medicine and biology, non bank finance and food and beverage. The amount of two financing transactions decreased, and the financing market turned into inflow. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF option rose by 1.28 percentage points, with the current value of 17.29%; The volatility of the US Standard & Poor's index (VIX) is 20.81, lower than the current value of the former US Standard & Poor's index (VIX).
Long term market sentiment: market risk appetite has remained low in the near future. At present, the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend - 10-year Treasury bond is - 0.56%, up 0.16 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical 70% quantile; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.98%, up 0.40 percentage points month on month, above the average, at the historical 56% quantile, up from the previous month, and the market risk appetite has dropped.
Risk tips
Downside risks of China's economy; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Risk of aggravating geographical conflicts, etc.
