April configuration view: the worst comes the worst
Review: our view in March was to focus on the inside. We believed that after the market experienced changes in internal expectations and the impact of external uncertainty, the index structure has become more and more healthy, and the risk appetite is expected to improve slowly. At the index level, in addition to the dividend index, the market generally fell by more than 5% in March, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the gem 50 were relatively resistant to decline, and the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the China Stock Exchange 500 were lower. At the industry level, coal and real estate rose by more than 8%, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and medicine rose, other industry indexes generally fell, and electronics, home appliances and consumer services fell first. Our gold stock portfolio fell by 0.55% in March. Since its establishment in February 2017, the cumulative portfolio return of China Thailand gold stock portfolio has been 228.2%, and the excess return relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 202.6%. The gold stock portfolio with better performance in March includes Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) (+ 36.85%), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) (+ 15.67%), Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) (+ 9.92%), Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) (+ 9.53%), etc.
The long-term factors that suppress the market still exist. The sharp adjustment of the market in March was mainly affected by three factors: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the epidemic in China and the negative feedback caused by the pressure of capital redemption. Externally, the market mainly focuses on geopolitical risks and the rhythm of the Fed’s monetary policy. On the one hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine raised the level of global inflation, on the other hand, exacerbated the market’s concern about de globalization. Affected by inflation expectations, the yield of US bonds rebounded sharply in March, which are all external negative factors affecting the market in March. However, from the performance of the equity market in March, A-Shares deviated from major countries in the world. Both the European and American markets and Japan and South Korea markets closed up more than 1% in March, The core indexes of the A-share market generally fell by more than 5%, which may indicate that internal factors are the main cause of market adjustment. For example, the rhythm of the epidemic in China is different from that in overseas, and the sharp decline of China concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks stems from concerns about industrial policies such as China’s Internet and real estate. Finally, in terms of market structure, northbound funds flowed out sharply in March, and bank financial management and “fixed income +” product redemption further caused negative feedback, resulting in significant adjustment in a short time. Internally, the market mainly focuses on China’s epidemic situation and prevention and control policies. At present, the mainstream view holds that it is more likely that the change of prevention and control policies can be considered only after the vaccination rate reaches a certain level and the import of specific drugs and vaccines is gradually liberalized. On the whole, no matter which of the above factors reflects the reality of supply shock, demand contraction and weakening expectations, which also means that the internal macro environment faced by A-Shares is still a combination of loose liquidity expectations and declining earnings expectations. On the whole, it still points to the structural market, which will last for a long time.
Risk appetite is still at the bottom, but the risk is not high. Although the short-term policy feedback in the middle of March has further suppressed the negative source of market growth, we have seen that it is difficult to suppress the negative source of market growth, which has basically led to the elimination of the short-term policy feedback in the middle of March. For the market, this quarterly downturn in history mostly occurred in the stage of tightening China’s liquidity environment. At present, the risk of continued sharp decline of the position index is not large. At the valuation level, the historical quantile of the median valuation of industry heavyweights in the whole market has been below 30%, which has also changed to form a safety cushion for the index. Of course, subject to the capital and wide credit rhythm, the main line of market transactions still revolves around certainty before the macro liquidity has not been significantly improved. In January, it is a position adjustment and stock exchange based on the expectation of stable growth, February is an oversold rebound based on the certainty of the first quarterly report, and March is a major pharmaceutical market related to the epidemic. After the meeting of the financial stability Committee, the stable growth policy is expected to enter the power period, which may be the greatest certainty in the future, Recently, the market has shown this. In terms of allocation ideas, it is suggested to trade at both ends. First, the recent turnover is relatively sufficient, and the downward momentum is close to exhaustion; The second is the recent strong direction with less resistance. In terms of macro clues, we can focus on the combination layout of real estate + inflation + medicine in the early stage, and the oversold growth represented by electronics, military industry and new energy may be dominant in the later stage.
Gold stock portfolio in April:
From top to bottom, from top to bottom, and combining with the monthly portfolio of our various industries, the gold stock recommendation for the Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) and tourism ETF.
Risk tips:
Monthly research opinions and key recommended targets are based on the judgment of each industry group on the fundamentals and profitability of the next month. Each industry has its economic and policy premise before making the final recommendation, and there may be economic and policy inconsistencies with our expectations.
