Mature market
Positive factors
Many countries have relaxed epidemic prevention measures and entry-exit restrictions, which will help improve the consumer market and benefit the economic recovery
Russia and Ukraine have held peace talks for many times. Although the progress is slow, the market expects that the two countries are expected to reach a ceasefire agreement in the second quarter, which will help improve the global investment climate
Risk factors
The uncertain situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in the prices of energy and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and at the same time, the continued high inflation in Europe and the United States may affect the pace of economic recovery and increase the risk of stagflation
The yield curves of us 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds, and 5-year and 30-year treasury bonds have been upside down, or reflect the rising risk of US economic recession
Emerging markets
Positive factors
In order to stimulate the economy, the central government is expected to introduce more easing policies, including reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, tax cuts and fees, which will help stabilize the economy and drive the recovery of A-share and Hong Kong stock valuations
Many South American and emerging Asian countries, such as Brazil and Indonesia, are rich in resource exports, and their economies are expected to benefit from rising resource prices
Risk factors
Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine caused serious damage. In addition, Russia was sanctioned by the governments of many countries around the world and enterprises withdrew their capital, which seriously frustrated the economy of Eastern Europe
Global inflation, US interest rate hikes and the slowdown of economic growth in Europe and the United States may put pressure on Asian exports
Bonds
Positive factors
Global has gradually lifted social restrictions, the economy continues to recover, and corporate profits are expected to improve and improve repayment ability
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to a rise in commodity prices. It is expected that the raw material sector and resource export areas will have stronger pricing power, which will help improve the quality of credit, and the relevant bonds may benefit
Risk factors
Some officials of the Federal Reserve Board pointed out that when inflation is too high, a single interest rate increase of 0.5% should not be ruled out. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the rising fuel price heats up inflation, accelerates the pace of interest rate hikes, or puts pressure on bond prices
Many domestic housing enterprises are still plagued by operating prospects and debt problems. Even for strong companies, the sales speed is still slow, and the support of the Chinese authorities may take time to see results
Merchandise
Positive factors
The situation between Russia and Ukraine is not yet clear. The two countries play an important role in global energy and commodity supply. If the conflict continues, commodity prices are expected to continue to rise
If prices fail to cooperate, it will gradually reduce the purchasing power and social supply, which will help the economy recover. Commodities have certain anti inflation ability, and high inflation will drive demand
Risk factors
Affected by covid-19 epidemic, many regions in China have implemented City closures, further hindering economic activities or affecting the demand for commodity resources
Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have risen by nearly 40%. Stabilizing energy prices while curbing inflation is one of the main goals of all countries, and the increase may be limited
