Event:
In March 2022, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index was 48.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month; The comprehensive PMI output index was 48.8%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Comments:
1. Under the impact of China's epidemic, PMI fell below the boom and bust line in March, and the supply and demand of manufacturing industry showed a double weak trend
From the perspective of manufacturing PMI, the new order index was 48.8%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant decline in downstream demand; The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry continued to decline; The production index was 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant slowdown in manufacturing production.
2. The prosperity of domestic and foreign demand industries is low, and the prosperity of large enterprises is relatively stable
Both supply and demand have weakened significantly. Affected by the epidemic, enterprises in some areas have reduced or stopped production; Due to the intensification of geopolitical conflict, some export orders of enterprises have been reduced or cancelled. In terms of industries, the production index and new order index of textile, textile, clothing, general equipment and other industries fell to a low level of less than 45.0%. The operation of large enterprises is relatively stable. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.3%, 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. It is still in the boom range and continues to expand. The PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 48.5% and 46.6%, which continued to be below the critical point.
3. In March, the landscape of the construction industry recovered slightly, and the landscape of the service industry decreased significantly
The landscape of the construction industry picked up slightly. The impact of the epidemic on the construction industry was limited, and the construction progress was accelerated. The business activity index was 58.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, of which the business activity index of civil engineering construction industry was 64.7%, 6.1 percentage points higher than the previous month, rising to the high boom range. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 60.3%. Although it is lower than that of last month, it continues to be in the high boom range, and enterprises are still optimistic about the development prospect of the industry. The boom level of the service industry has dropped significantly. The service industry has been significantly affected by the current round of epidemic. According to the situation of different industries, the contact aggregation industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation and catering have been greatly affected by the epidemic, business activities have decreased significantly, and the business pressure of enterprises has increased.
4. PMI of iron and steel industry: in March, the supply and demand of iron and steel industry were both weak, and it is expected that the production of steel mills will tend to pick up in April
According to the PMI of the iron and steel industry released by the professional committee of China IOT iron and steel logistics, it was 44.3% in March 2022, down 3.0 percentage points month on month, and the growth rate of the iron and steel industry decreased. From the change of sub index, in March, the multi-point spread of the epidemic in China had a more obvious impact on the steel industry. The production of steel mills declined, the overall market demand tightened, the logistics and transportation pressure of raw materials and finished products increased, and the market price rose. However, the iron and steel industry has a stable recovery foundation in the future. It is expected that in April, the release of market demand will accelerate, and the production of steel mills will tend to pick up, but the cost pressure may continue, driving the steel price to rise slightly.
