Event: in March, CMI manufacturing pmi49 5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the PMI of non manufacturing industry fell from 51.6% to 48.4%.
Manufacturing PMI fell over seasonality, and production fell under the disturbance of epidemic and geopolitical risks. PMI in March usually performed better than that in February after weakening with the seasonal effect of the Spring Festival, but PMI in manufacturing fell under the influence of the escalation of China’s epidemic and overseas geopolitical conflicts. The epidemic is severe in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Jilin Province. It also directly affects the production and transportation of Dawan district and the Yangtze River Delta. It will still be partially disturbed in April.
Both supply and demand weakened, and export orders fell. Production, new orders, new export orders and import indexes all fell below the boom and bust line. According to the data released by the Bureau of statistics, the supply and demand of textile and clothing, general equipment and other industries are weak. Under the influence of the epidemic, enterprises in some regions temporarily reduced production and stopped production, and geopolitical conflicts intensified, which also led to the reduction or cancellation of export orders of some enterprises. At present, the PMI of the US manufacturing industry remains upward, while under geopolitical risks, the European economy is facing greater pressure, and the PMI of the euro zone has fallen.
The price of raw materials rises significantly faster than the ex factory price, the cost side of enterprises is still under pressure, geopolitics has increased the price fluctuation of bulk commodities, and the price index of fuel, black and non-ferrous processing is at a high level, bringing great pressure to downstream industries. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and European and American sanctions have significantly boosted crude oil, natural gas and other energy. In addition, Hussein armed forces and U.S. sanctions against Iran have also exacerbated the volatility of crude oil and other commodity prices. The global energy, black, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) industrial chain repair and sentiment have been impacted.
The inventory of raw materials has been eliminated, the margin of finished product inventory has increased, and the delivery time has been extended. The marginal of the production side weakened, the price of raw materials continued to rise, and the inventory of raw materials continued to fall; The demand is weak, and the margin of finished product inventory is upward. The delivery time of suppliers dropped, and the procurement and delivery time of raw materials of enterprises extended.
PMI in the construction industry continued to rise, but the structure became weaker, the service industry fell significantly, and employment fell. The activity expectation, employment and new order index of the construction industry fell. With the warming weather and steady growth, the pace of infrastructure investment was ahead, and the outlook of the construction industry continued. However, affected by the epidemic, some construction may be blocked. Under the influence of the epidemic and control, the outlook of offline service industries such as transportation, accommodation and catering decreased significantly.
Under the pressure of the epidemic, the marginal price of the service industry continued to fall, which was disturbed by the epidemic situation. The resurgence of the epidemic has impacted the offline service industry, and the shutdown of some enterprises has also brought some pressure to the upstream and downstream. The semi blockade of important port cities in Shanghai and Shenzhen has superimposed geopolitical risks, which has brought periodic disturbance to exports. Employment continued to weaken, and the expectation of residents’ consumption weakened. The main economic support is still on the investment side, and more policies to protect the economy need to be introduced in the future.
Risk factors: geopolitical risks drive upstream prices to rise continuously, the duration and scope of the epidemic exceed expectations, and the credit process is less than expected.
