\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
Core conclusion
The vehicle controller has a precise leading position and intelligent track, and the product type spectrum covers a wide range Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) is a solution provider of automotive intelligent system. It has been deeply engaged in the field of automotive electronics for nearly 20 years. It is one of the few local enterprises with the ability to support the synchronous development of automotive electronics of global vehicle manufacturers. The existing products mainly include five series: automotive lighting control, motor control, energy management, on-board electrical appliances and electronics and other auto parts (the revenue of lighting control, motor control and on-board electrical appliances and electronics accounted for 50%, 22% and 18% respectively in the first three quarters of 2021). The company’s core customer is Volkswagen Group, and continues to break through new customers and accelerate the global layout.
The new product matrix is close to the consumption upgrading trend, and the on-board controller contains new increment. The upgrading of automobile electrification, intelligence, networking and automatic driving technology is promoting the development of automobile electronic controller market, and the company’s new product matrix is close to consumption upgrading. 1) Lamp controller: Changpo heavy snow track, the market scale is expected to double in 2025; 2) Active air intake grille system: a new weapon for energy conservation and emission reduction, which is expected to exceed 10 billion market in five years; 3) National VI emission products of commercial vehicles: double the growth in the first half of 21 years, with stability at the head and infrastructure accelerating to support the bottom growth.
Nuggets in the field of intelligence, enabling vehicle manufacturers to realize software defined vehicles. Automotive intelligence and networking drive the automotive electronic and electrical architecture from distributed to centralized, and the domain controller ushers in new opportunities. The company is in a leading position in China’s chassis controller and chassis domain controller market, and has won the fixed points of Chinese head independent brands DCC (adaptive suspension controller) and ASC (air suspension controller), such as Xiaopeng, Geely, Byd Company Limited(002594) and actively explore customers in the international market. Among them, DCC products supporting Xiaopeng have been mass produced on relevant models of Xiaopeng. In the future, the company will take the accumulation of chassis domain control technology as the starting point and force the chassis domain + body domain at the same time.
Investment suggestions: the company’s new products and new customers continue to expand, and new fixed points continue to break through. We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.016/39.41/5.018 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 430/6.87/915 million respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 1.08/1.72/2.29/share respectively. The on-board controller has high technical barriers and is the core component of automotive electronics. We believe that the on-board controller should enjoy the valuation premium. Through the valuation calculation of the on-board controller through the PE relative valuation method, we give the company 40 times PE in 2022, with the corresponding market value of 27.5 billion yuan. It is covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the sales volume of automobiles is less than expected, the expansion of new customers is less than expected, the price rise of upstream raw materials and the risk of core shortage.
