\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
Event overview
The company released its annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 34.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8%; The weighted average roe was 10.67%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.07pct. The basic earnings per share was 1.42 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8%.
Analysis and judgment:
The proportion of fund management income increased, and investment banking and investment caused short-term drag
In terms of income structure, the net income from fund management business accounted for the highest, reaching 26%, followed by brokerage business accounting for 23%, self operated business accounting for 17%, net interest income accounting for 14%, and income from other businesses, equity investment and investment banking accounted for 11%, 4% and 1% respectively.
From the perspective of incremental income contribution, fund management income contributed 70% of the incremental income, brokerage and interest net income contributed 27% and 13% respectively, equity investment and others contributed 9%, and investment banking, asset management and self operation contributed negative, contributing – 4%, – 5% and – 21% respectively.
Public funds have maintained industry leadership and the scale of asset management has increased significantly
In 2021, the company realized a fund management business income of 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 67%. The strength of the company’s public funds is strong, holding 54% equity of GF and 22.7% equity of e-fund respectively. Benefiting from the great development of the public fund industry, the scale of the two fund companies continued to increase. The scale of non commodity public offering of e fund and GF was 1228.9 billion yuan and 691.9 billion yuan, ranking first and third in the industry. The asset management business gradually developed. In the whole year, the entrusted asset management scale of the company reached 493.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 62%, and the net asset management income was 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19%. The increase in scale and the decrease in income are mainly due to the increase in the proportion of institutional business.
Wealth management has significant advantages, and the number of funds sold on a commission basis ranks third among securities companies
During the reporting period, the company’s net income from brokerage business was 7.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21%. Among them, the market share of stock based trading volume was 3.86%, a slight decrease of 0.08 PCT over the same period. The company firmly promoted the transformation of wealth management and maintained rapid development in the business of selling financial products on a commission basis. By the end of December 2021, the holding scale of financial products sold by the company on a commission basis had increased by 17% year-on-year; The holding scale of non money market public funds sold on a commission basis ranks third among securities companies.
Investment banking revenue can be expected to improve, and investment income will fall with the market
In 2021, the company completed zero IPO, refinancing scale of 1.1 billion yuan and core debt financing of 15.8 billion yuan. In June 2021, with the acceptance of the listing application of “Fubei pet”, the investment bank recommendation business of the company, which had been silent for a year, recovered. At present, the number of investment banking companies queuing up is 98, ranking 13th in the industry. With the gradual normalization of investment banking business, the company’s investment banking revenue can be improved in 22 years.
The scale of self operated investment increased and the income decreased. At the end of 2021, the company’s financial asset investment was 235.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%. The yield was 2.66%, down 0.80pct year-on-year. The company realized an investment income of 5.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 16%.
The company launched the repurchase plan and implemented equity incentive
On March 31, the company announced that based on its confidence in the future development prospects and high recognition of the company’s value, in order to further bind the interests of the company’s management and the company and enhance the company’s core competitiveness, the company plans to repurchase shares with about 203406 million yuan for the implementation of the A-share restricted stock equity incentive plan, and the repurchase price shall not exceed 26.65 yuan / share.
Investment advice
The company’s public fund business is leading in the industry, and GF fund and e fund, which participate in and hold shares, are in the leading position in the industry; Return to AA regulatory rating, investment banking recommendation business recovers, and investment banking business is expected to improve significantly under the low base of 21 years; Great wealth management business has obvious advantages, driving the company’s performance growth.
We fine tuned the forecast of the company’s operating revenue of 42.194/48.458 billion yuan in 22-23 years to 39.835/47.066 billion yuan, increased the 24-year forecast to 54.376 billion yuan, and reduced the eps1.00 yuan in 22-23 years The forecast of 80 / 2.08 yuan is to 1.71/2.02 yuan, and the 24-year forecast value is increased by 2.33 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 18.10 yuan / share on March 31, 2022. Pb is 1.24/1.22/1.20 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips
The stock and bond market fluctuated sharply, and the return on proprietary investment fell; Stock market fluctuation and stock pledge business risk; Substantial increase in talent management rate
