\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021, the total revenue was 109464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, the total revenue in Q4 single quarter was 32.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%. The company expects a total revenue of 33.1 billion yuan in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%.
The growth of 21q4 was accelerated, and the effect of channel adjustment was obvious. 1) The revenue of Maotai liquor in 21 years was 93.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, the sales volume / average price increased by 5.7% / 4.3%, the Q4 revenue was 28.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The increase in supply of pumao from distribution channels drove the growth of Q4. The annual revenue of series liquor was 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, and the sales volume / average price increased by 1.5% / 24.3%. The increase in average price brought by the optimization of product structure was the main contribution, with Q4 revenue of 3.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, Mainly due to the slow pace of delivery. 2) 21. The annual revenue of direct / wholesale channels was 24.03/82.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 81.5% / 0.6%. Direct sales accounted for 22.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.7pct. The revenue of direct sales in Q4 reached 29.6%. Considering the large volume of e-commerce platforms, the company’s channel adjustment has achieved remarkable results. 3) 22q1 continued its brilliant performance. It is estimated that Maotai 1935 / treasures, non-standard increment and other contributions are relatively high. It is estimated that the revenue / net profit in March was RMB 12.9/6.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15.0% / 17.4%. In the off-season, it still maintained a fast delivery rhythm and made a good start.
Structural optimization continued to promote profitability. 1) The gross profit margin of 21 years was 91.54%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.13pct, of which the gross profit margin of Maotai Liquor / Series liquor was 94.0% / 73.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.04 / + 3.55pct. The gross profit margin of Q4 is 92.37%, which has increased year-on-year / month on month. It is estimated that the average price will be raised due to the decrease of the proportion of Q4 series wine and the increase of supply of pumao. 2) The annual / Q4 sales expense ratio of 21 was 2.50% / 2.51%, with a year-on-year ratio of – 0.1 / – 0.21pct, the management and R & D expense ratio of 7.78% / 9.43%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.8 / + 1.51pct, which was due to a large increase in employee compensation. The annual / Q4 net profit margin was 47.92% / 46.88%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.27 / + 1.59pct, and the 22q1 net profit margin was 50.15%. It is estimated that the increase of non-standard quota will promote the increase of gross profit margin. 3) 21. The annual / Q4 sales collection was 119.32/39.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% / 11.8%, and the net operating cash flow was 64.03/27.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.9% / + 2.7%. By the end of the 21st century, contract liabilities + other current liabilities had amounted to 14.25 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% over the end of 21q3. It is estimated that it is mainly affected by the rhythm of payment in slack and peak seasons.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company has taken the initiative to seek change since the second half of the 21st century, and 21q4 began to show an upward trend of acceleration. It made a bright start in 22 years, laid the tone of annual growth, and the growth target of 15% of total revenue was significantly faster than that in 21 years. The increase of Maotai liquor volume in the past 22 years has guaranteed the production capacity. The increase of non-standard quota, channel reform and optimization of series liquor structure have promoted the rise of ton price, and the certainty of both volume and price is strong. The contribution of newly launched Maotai 1935 and treasures to the revenue in the past 22 years is estimated to be more than 5%. The net profit forecast for 202223 was raised to 61.81/71.97 billion yuan (compared with the previous forecast + 2.7% / + 4.1%), the net profit forecast for 24 years was increased to 82.71 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS was 49.21/57.29/65.84 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 35 / 30 / 26 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: demand for high-end Baijiu is weak, channel reform is not as expected, new product performance is less than expected.
