\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company released an annual report. In 2021, the total revenue was 109.46 billion yuan, the main business income was 106.19 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, 11.9% and 12.3% respectively. The annual revenue performance met Market expectations, of which the main business income / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 31.55/15.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9% and 18.1%. At the end of 2021, contract liabilities + other current liabilities totaled 14.26 billion yuan, an increase of 3.99 billion yuan month on month. At the same time, the company plans to pay out 216.75 yuan for every 10 shares and distribute a total profit of 27.2 billion yuan.
Key investment points
The expense rate remained stable and the profitability improved steadily. In 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 91.63%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.06pct; The business tax rate was 14%, basically unchanged year-on-year, the sales expense rate was 2.50%, decreased by 0.1pct year-on-year, and the management expense rate was 7.78%, increased by 0.8pct year-on-year. The net profit margin of sales was 52.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.29pct.
The volume and price of Maotai increased slightly, and the ton price of series liquor increased greatly. The revenue of Maotai liquor was 93.465 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.18%, the gross profit margin was 94.0%, a year-on-year increase of + 0.04 PCT, the sales volume was 36300 tons, and the ton price was 2.578 million yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and 4.3% respectively; The revenue of series liquor was 12.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.06%, the gross profit margin was 73.7%, a year-on-year increase of + 3.55 PCT, the sales volume was 30200 tons, and the ton price was 417000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and 24.3% respectively. The volume and price of Maotai liquor increased steadily throughout the year. After price adjustment and sorting in 2021, the ton price of series liquor increased greatly. We expect that in 2022, Maotai's sales volume is expected to continue to break through and achieve large single digit growth, non-standard driving prices to continue to rise, and the appropriate volume of series liquor can be expected.
The direct selling channel has been rapidly improved, accounting for 23% of the total in the whole year. The revenue from direct sales channels was 24.029 billion yuan, the sales volume was 5700 tons, and the price per ton was 4.19 million yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 81.5%, 45.9% and 24.4% respectively, accounting for 23% and a year-on-year increase of 9pct; The wholesale revenue was 82.03 billion yuan, the sales volume was 61000 tons, and the ton price was 1.35 million yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, 1.0% and - 0.4% respectively. The proportion of direct sales revenue has increased significantly, and we expect it to continue to rise steadily in 2022.
The endogenous power is strong, and the upward momentum in 2022 is determined. This year, there are still many elastic points of performance contribution, which is fully confirmed by the Q1 operation data announced by the company in the early stage. It is suggested that the fluctuation of daily rating should be weakened, and the upward trend of long-term rating should be clear. In particular, the company has clear ideas, and the marketing reform should be promoted step by step, so that the governance and operation from inside to outside can continue to improve. The company has made clear the business target of 2022, and the total operating revenue will increase by about 15% at the same time, so as to continue to strengthen market confidence.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the price increase will not be considered for the time being. We maintain that the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 16% and 18% respectively in 2022, corresponding to PE of 35x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the promotion of reform is less than expected, the price increase is less than expected, and food safety problems.
