\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 760 Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) )
Event: Recently, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 34.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.79%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.93%. In 2022q1, the company expects the revenue to increase by about 29% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 509 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, higher than the market expectation.
In 2021, the gross profit margin of sales increased steadily, the proportion of R & D continued to increase, and the level of corporate governance continued to improve. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's sales was 9.76%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.53pct, mainly due to the increase of the gross profit margin of its main aviation products. In 2021, the R & D expense ratio of the company was 1.94%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.89pct; During the period, the expense rate was 3.65%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.01pct, and the proportion of the company's management fee and financial fee continued to decrease. We believe that the company's R & D expenses will increase significantly in 2021, indicating that the progress of the new model is expected to accelerate and the company's technical strength is expected to be further enhanced; The decrease in the proportion of the company's management fee and financial fee indicates that the company's management level has been continuously improved and its financial situation has been continuously improved.
Contract liabilities and prepayments increased significantly in 2021, and the amount of related party transactions is expected to increase in 2022, indicating that the outlook of the industrial chain is expected to continue to improve. By the end of 2021, the company's contractual liabilities were RMB 36.535 billion, an increase of RMB 5.373 billion month on month; The company's advance payment was 21.676 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20 billion yuan over the beginning of the year. In 2022, the estimated related purchase amount is about 26.35 billion yuan, an increase of 42% over the actual amount in 2021, and the estimated related sales amount is 5.63 billion yuan, an increase of 74.8% over the actual amount in 2021. We believe that the company's orders are expected to maintain a growth trend in the future, and the landscape of the industrial chain will continue to improve.
Advanced fighters are still the key procurement object of equipment in the future, and the company's performance is expected to continue to improve. According to the data of the U.S. Department of defense, in 2021, the U.S. military's funds for purchasing advanced fighters accounted for about 21% of the total equipment procurement funds of that year, accounting for the highest proportion among all kinds of main combat equipment, and it is the key object of equipment procurement Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) is one of the core suppliers of China's advanced fighters. Thanks to the important position of advanced fighters in equipment procurement and the continuous improvement of the company's R & D investment, we believe that more products of the company will enter the stage of mass production and assembly in the future. Combined with the continuous improvement of the company's management level, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 42.6 billion yuan, 52.38 billion yuan and 65.02 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 2.29 billion yuan, 2.93 billion yuan and 3.69 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE will be 48x, 38x and 30x respectively. We will continue to give the investment rating of buy-a.
Risk warning: the risk of untimely supply of supporting parts; Risk of product delivery delay.
