\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 390 China Railway Group Limited(601390) )
The company announced 21fy annual report, 21fy revenue 1073.3 billion, yoy + 10.1% (compared with 19fycagr + 12.3%); Net profit attributable to parent company was 27.6 billion, yoy + 9.6% (compared with 19fycagr + 8.0%); Net profit deducted from non parent company is 26.1 billion, yoy + 19.4% (compared with 19fycagr + 20.7%). The single 21q4 income is 303.1 billion, yoy + 6.0% (compared with 19q4cagr + 4.2%), the net profit attributable to the parent is 7 billion, yoy + 0.6% (compared with 19q4cagr-7.8%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent is 6.7 billion, yoy + 40.9% (compared with 19q4cagr + 46.6%). The revenue growth is resilient and the profit margin is stable.
The new revenue growth is resilient and the profit margin is stable
In terms of business, 21fy’s capital construction / real estate development / equipment manufacturing / survey and design consulting / other business income is 9234 / 502 / 238 / 176 / 58.2 billion respectively, yoy + 9.4% / 1.9% / 3.3% / 8.8% / 38.2% respectively (CAGR + 12.4% / 8.1% / 18.5% / 4.3% / 16.1% respectively compared with 19fy’s income). The growth of the main capital construction industry is resilient, 21h2 has slowed down, and the fluctuation of macro environment (periodic fluctuation of capital investment and real estate risk events, etc.) may have a certain impact, At the same time, it should be considered that the 20h2 base is also high. The newly signed contract amount of 21fy is 2729.3 billion, yoy + 4.7%, including 241.67 billion, yoy + 10.7%; 21q4 newly signed contracts amounted to 1263 billion, yoy + 0.9%, of which 1147.9 billion were newly signed for infrastructure construction, yoy + 9.9%. The newly signed contracts continued to grow rapidly. By the end of 21fy, the company’s outstanding contract amount was 4545.3 billion, 4.2 times of 21fy revenue, supporting the sustainability of subsequent revenue growth.
The comprehensive gross profit margin of 21fy is 10.2%, yoy-0.1pct, of which the gross profit margin of infrastructure / real estate development / equipment manufacturing / survey and design consulting / other business is 8.4% / 22.2% / 21.6% / 28.3% / 18.3%, yoy + 0.1 / – 1.0 / + 2.1 / – 3.4pct respectively,. 21q4 comprehensive gross profit margin is 12.3%, yoy-0.3pct, generally stable. The expenses are generally stable. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21fy is 27.6 billion, yoy + 9.6%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 7 billion, yoy + 0.6%. The net interest rate of 21fy attributable to the parent company is 2.6%, and the net interest rate of single 21q4 attributable to the parent company is 2.3%, yoy-0.01 / -0.1pct respectively.
The turnover of the two funds continued to accelerate, and the cash flow stage was under pressure
At the end of 21fy, the company’s asset liability ratio was 73.7%, yoy-0.2pct; Interest bearing debt ratio 29.4%, yoy + 2.3pct; The turnover of two funds (inventory + contract assets + accounts receivable) continued to accelerate. The turnover days of two funds in 21fy was 131 days, a year-on-year decrease of 39 days (53 days compared with 19fy). 21fy’s net operating cash flow increased by 17.9 billion to 13.1 billion year-on-year, continuing the positive inflow trend in recent years. The net investment cash flow increased by 14.3 billion to 77.5 billion year-on-year.
Benefit from steady growth, attach importance to the improvement of growth quality during the 14th five year plan, and maintain the “buy” rating
Economic pressure, optimistic about the upward elasticity of infrastructure investment, the company benefits. The “14th five year plan” of the company will focus on the main responsibility and main business, with the theme of promoting high-quality development and the main line of promoting transformation and upgrading, and is optimistic about the steady improvement of the growth quality of the company. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company to be 31.8/35.3/40.9 billion in 22-24 years (the company’s revenue growth toughness and profitability stability are slightly better than our expectation, and the forecast for 22 / 23 years is slightly increased, with the previous values of 31.3/35.3 billion yuan respectively), corresponding to 15% / 11% / 16% of yoy respectively. The company’s purchase target was raised to rmb32.00 (rmb8.00) and the company’s purchase target was raised to rmb32.00 (rmb8.00).
Risk tip: the growth rate of infrastructure investment is lower than expected, the landing rhythm of public offering REITs policy is lower than expected, and the advantages are weakened due to the limited expansion of central enterprise projects
