\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 563 Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) )
Excluding the influence of K company, the income and net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years were + 10% and + 14% year-on-year
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 15.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.41%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.50%, and a deduction of non net profit of 1.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.88%. Excluding the impact of the company’s stripping of the loss making French children’s clothing subsidiary kidiliz in 20 years, the company’s original business income in China and net profit attributable to the parent increased by 10% and 14% respectively year-on-year, and the overall performance recovered steadily compared with 20 years. EPS is 0.55 yuan, and the proposed dividend per share is 0.50 yuan (including tax). Among them, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was significantly faster than that of income, mainly due to the contribution of the increase of gross profit margin and the decrease of expense rate.
From 2021q1 to Q4, the company’s single quarter operating revenue was + 20.91%, + 7.01%, – 5.69%, – 6.19% year-on-year respectively, compared with – 19.61%, – 21.83%, – 30.49%, – 11.14% year-on-year respectively from 19q1 to Q4, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 1917%, + 7500%, + 42.85% and – 7.82% year-on-year respectively.
After excluding the influence of K company, the online channel revenue in 21 years was + 13%, and the direct net store expansion was + 15%
From the perspective of splitting: 1) in terms of sub channels, the online and offline revenue were 6.458 billion yuan and 8.841 billion yuan respectively, the proportion of online revenue increased by 3.68 PCT to 41.88%, and the online revenue was + 13.06% year-on-year (excluding the influence of K company, the same below). From the perspective of offline re splitting, the revenue from direct operation, franchise and joint operation was 1.400 billion yuan, 6.82 billion yuan and 621 million yuan respectively, accounting for 9.08%, 44.23% and 4.03% respectively, and the revenue was – 3.07%, + 8.16% and + 42.48% year-on-year respectively.
2) by category, the income of children’s clothing and adult clothing was 10.272 billion yuan and 5.027 billion yuan respectively. The proportion of children’s clothing income decreased slightly by 0.02pct to 66.62%, the proportion of adult clothing income was flat at 32.60%, and the income of children’s clothing and adult clothing was + 14.88% (excluding the influence of K Company) and + 1.43% year-on-year respectively.
4) in terms of stores, there were 8567 stores at the end of 2021, a net decrease of 1.81% compared with the end of 20. According to channels, there were 781 Direct stores, franchises and associates respectively (a net increase of 100, a year-on-year increase of + 14.68%), 7412 stores (a net decrease of 281, a year-on-year decrease of – 3.65%) and 374 stores (a net increase of 23, a year-on-year increase of + 6.55%); By category, there are 5744 stores for children’s wear and adult wear respectively (year-on-year + 1.95%) and 2823 stores (- 8.67%). Gross profit margin increased, advertising expenses increased significantly, inventories increased and cash flow decreased. Gross profit margin: gross profit margin increased by 2.24pct to 42.58% year-on-year in 21 years, and the comparable caliber increased by 3.67pct year-on-year after excluding the influence of K company. In terms of splitting, the gross profit margins of children’s wear and adult wear are 43.74% (+ 3.06pct, excluding the influence of K Company) and 40.13% (+ 4.25pct) respectively. The increase of gross profit margin in 21 years was mainly due to the increase of product pricing ratio and better control of sales discount. In terms of quarters, the gross profit margins of 21q1 ~ Q4 in a single quarter were 43.97% (+ 2.86pct), 44.39% (-0.82pct), 41.24% (+ 1.49pct) and 41.53% (+ 3.72pct) respectively. By channel, the gross profit margin of the company’s online, direct, franchise and joint venture was 37.36% (year-on-year + 5.21pct, excluding the influence of company K, the same below), 66.45% (+ 7.78pct), 40.01% (+ 1.23pct) and 70.66% (+ 4.74pct) respectively.
Expense rate: during the 21 years, the expense rate decreased by 1.52pct to 27.34% year-on-year. Among them, the rates of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses are 21.93% (- 0.10pct), 4.03% (- 1.39pct), 2.06% (+ 0.14pct) and – 0.67% (- 0.17pct) respectively. Among them, after excluding the influence of K company, the sales expenses increased by 32.1% year-on-year in 21 years, mainly due to the increase of 91% year-on-year increase in advertising expenses due to the strengthening of brand construction; After excluding the influence of K company, the management expenses increased by 8.8% year-on-year in 21 years, mainly due to the increase of salary, social security and it service fees. The expense rates from 21q1 to Q4 were -10.00pct, -8.60pct, -2.20pct and + 6.99pct year-on-year respectively. Other financial indicators: 1) the inventory at the end of the year 21 increased by 60.88% to 4.024 billion yuan compared with that at the beginning of the year 21, which was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the pressure of terminal retail, and the increase of commodities in 21 and 22 product seasons within one year. Inventory turnover days were 155 days, an increase of 22 days year-on-year. In terms of stock age, inventories within 1 year, 1 ~ 2 years, 2 ~ 3 years and more than 3 years account for 83.74% (+ 6.26pct), + 12.61% (- 7.12pct), + 3.12% (+ 1.51pct) and + 0.53% (- 0.66pct) respectively. The inventory structure is relatively healthy. The balance of inventory falling price reserves was 452 million yuan, accounting for 10.10% (year-on-year -742 PCT).
2) accounts receivable increased by 4.30% to 1.452 billion yuan at the end of the year compared with the beginning of the year, and the turnover days of accounts receivable were 33 days, a year-on-year decrease of 7 days. The balance of bad debt provision for accounts receivable was 190 million yuan, accounting for 11.60% (+ 6.35pct).
3) the total asset impairment loss + credit impairment loss in 21 years was 465 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.66%. Among them, the asset impairment loss decreased by 36.53% year-on-year to 333 million yuan; Credit impairment losses increased by 43.12% year-on-year to 132 million yuan.
4) the net cash flow from operating activities in 21 years was 2.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.42%. The year-on-year decrease in net cash flow from operating activities in 21 years was mainly due to the increase in bank credit due to the impact of the epidemic in 20 years. The company optimized the payment method of suppliers and increased the buyer’s interest paying bank acceptance bill, which promoted the rapid growth of operating cash flow and brought a high base.
Terminal retail is still uncertain, looking forward to the healthy growth of local clothing leaders
In the context of frequent outbreaks in the past 21 years, the company’s business performance was relatively stable, the growth rate of children’s clothing was fast, and adult clothing was still in adjustment. In the past 21 years, the company has actively strengthened the live broadcasting business and significantly increased the proportion of online business. Offline channels continue to be optimized and more direct stores are expanded, which is expected to be effective in 22 years. In addition, the company has also arranged store online business (online sales through small programs, etc.) to further promote Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integration. The company will continue to improve the quality of online and offline shopping channels, and further improve the business efficiency of balalamium’s terminal and offline shopping experience. At the same time, balalamium will continue to improve the business environment of young consumers, and continue to improve the business efficiency of balalamium’s terminal and offline retail. In addition, the monetary capital and financial management amount of the company at the end of 21 was 8.312 billion yuan, with sufficient cash reserves and strong anti risk ability.
Considering the short-term impact of the epidemic, terminal demand and channel expansion are still uncertain, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 22-23 years and the corresponding EPS for 22-23 years to 0.60 and 0.68 yuan respectively (10% and 12% lower than the previous profit forecast respectively), increased the profit forecast for 24 years and the corresponding EPS for 24 years to 0.76 yuan, and the PE for 22-23 years to 11 and 10 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic in China exceeded expectations, resulting in weak terminal consumption; E-commerce sales are less than expected; Ineffective offline channel expansion or investment in costs exceeding expectations; Channel inventory deteriorated.
