\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 810 Shenma Industry Co.Ltd(600810) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In the past 21 years, the company achieved an operating revenue of 13.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 479%; Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 3.5 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 234%, a month on month increase of - 4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 123%, a month on month increase of - 18%.
Comments:
The prosperity of the industry has improved, the prices of main products have risen sharply, and the performance has increased rapidly in 21 years: in 21 years, the sales of nylon 66 industrial silk, nylon 66 cord fabric, nylon 66 chips and refined adipic acid of the company were 61600 tons, 77300 tons, 134500 tons and 175300 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.1%, + 24.8%, - 18.3% and - 6.3% respectively. The average selling prices were 30400 yuan / ton, 39100 yuan / ton, 31100 yuan / ton and 9500 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 22.5%, + 28.6% respectively +70.1%, + 69.8%. The purchase prices of raw materials adiponitrile and refined benzene were 15800 yuan / ton and 6100 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6% and 72.13%. In 2021, some overseas chemical plants were affected by extreme weather and other factors, resulting in the tense relationship between global supply and demand. The price of the company's main products rose sharply, the profitability improved significantly, and the performance achieved high growth in 21 years.
Increasing the capital of Shanghai Shenma 60000 T / a nylon 66 chip project is expected to improve the economic benefits of the company: on March 10, 2022, the company decided to increase the capital of Shanghai Shenma Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, to speed up the project construction of its 60000 T / a special nylon 66 chip (20000 tons in phase I). The project mainly includes 8000 T / a rapid prototyping thermal stability nylon chips, 4000 T / a high viscosity injection grade nylon chips, 2000 t / a moistening nylon chips, 1000 t / a copolymerized nylon chips, etc. According to the disclosure of the feasibility study report of the project, it is expected that the year when the project reaches production capacity will bring 510 million yuan of sales revenue to the company. After the project is put into operation, the layout of the company's Nylon 66 industrial chain will be further improved.
Phase I test run of 130000 tons of BOPA film industry chain project in November and phase I test run of 210000 tons of BOPA film industry at the end of November. By the end of the 21st century, the company had 210000 tons of nylon 66 chips, 133000 tons of nylon 66 industrial silk, 90000 tons of nylon 66 cord fabric, 130000 tons of bisphenol A, 100000 tons of PC, 10000 tons of BOPA and 290000 tons of adipic acid. In the next 22 years, the company will continue to promote the construction of industrial supporting coal hydrogen ammonia project with an annual output of 400000 tons, 1,6-hexanediol project with an annual output of 30000 tons, adiponitrile project with an annual output of 50000 tons, etc. After the company's current projects under construction are put into operation, the industrial chain layout will be further improved, and the performance is expected to continue to increase.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the prosperity of nylon industry is better than expected, the company's profitability is significantly improved, and the company's performance is expected to accelerate with the addition of new production capacity in the future. Therefore, we raise the company's profit forecast for 20222023 and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit from 20222024 will be 23.55 (17%) / 25.96 (9%) / 2.845 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS 2.85 billion yuan 26 / 2.49/2.72 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the new production capacity is less than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The recovery of downstream demand was less than expected.
