\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
The terminal share continues to increase, and the battery leader is expected to be strong and strong. The power battery industry has high technical barriers. Product quality, capacity scale and production cost constitute a positive feedback closed loop. The industry has an extremely prominent Matthew effect. The company’s global power battery installed capacity in 2021 was about 97gwh, the market share in China was stable at about 50% and the global market share was 32.6%. Relying on its quality advantages, higher yield and direct rate, the company has greatly led its peers in cost, and created a super moat in technology, cost and customers. We expect that the advantages of multi-dimensional circular feedback are difficult to be surpassed, and the company is expected to be strong and strong.
The ability of supply chain management is prominent, and the profit is expected to improve marginally in 2022. The company has comprehensively arranged the materials in all links of the upstream, which not only ensures the material supply, but also obtains the investment income, and the competitiveness has been greatly improved. In this round of price rise cycle, it has the least impact compared with other second tier enterprises, reflecting a strong profit stability. The company has recently started to raise the battery price. With the gradual release of upstream material production capacity in 2022, most raw materials such as hexafluoride and additives will enter the price decline cycle, and the pressure on battery cost will be gradually relieved. At the same time, with the continuous expansion of production and sales, the scale effect becomes more prominent, and the battery profit is expected to be repaired.
Card position energy storage track, and the energy storage business is expected to open the second growth curve. The company’s energy storage business revenue has rapidly increased from 44 million yuan in 2014 to 1.943 billion yuan in 2020. It is expected that the energy storage shipment will be 15gwh in 2021. Energy storage has become a new growth point of the company’s performance. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the rapid growth of the energy storage market has become an industry consensus. The company started the energy storage strategy based on the low-cost and long-life lithium iron phosphate battery. At the same time, it continuously developed the key materials of the sodium ion battery industry chain, large-scale energy storage system, intelligent energy network and other advanced technologies, and completed the multi-directional layout through strategic cooperation, establishment of joint ventures, signing of long-term supply contracts and other forms. With the further decline of cost and the gradual implementation and operation of the company’s preliminary layout, the energy storage business will become the main driving factor for the development of the company together with the power battery.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We believe that the marginal improvement logic of the battery link in the future is smooth, superimposed on the company’s breakthroughs in overseas markets and the growth in energy storage. As the industry leader, the company has high certainty of performance growth. We predict that the company’s earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.50 yuan, 12.94 yuan and 18.67 yuan respectively. Combined with the valuation level of comparable companies, we will give the company 52 times PE in 2022, with a reasonable total market value of 156824 billion yuan, corresponding to the company’s overall target price of 672.82 yuan, For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations; The risk of intensified industry competition; New product and technology development risks; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The risk of declining profitability caused by price fluctuations.
