\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 460 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) )
The company released the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue was 11.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 102.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 410.26%; The non net profit deducted was 2.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 622.76%; The net cash flow from operating activities was 2.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 251.09%. The company achieved a revenue of 4.108 billion yuan in 21q4, a year-on-year increase of + 151.89% and a month on month increase of + 37.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 296.96% and a month on month increase of + 160.98%; The non net profit deducted was 1.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 990.76% and a month on month increase of + 149.41%.
Lithium salt products have strong cost control ability. In terms of production and sales, 89700 tons of LCE were produced in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 65.23%; The sales volume was 90700 tons of LCE, a year-on-year increase of + 43.97%; The year-end inventory was 496135 tons, a year-on-year increase of – 16.44%. In 2021, the average sales price of lithium products is about 91700 yuan / ton (excluding tax), including 72300 yuan / ton in the first half of the year and 107800 yuan / ton in the second half of the year; The unit sales cost is about 47900 yuan / ton, which reflects that the company has a very obvious competitive advantage in cost control. In terms of lithium concentrate procurement, the average procurement price of the company in the first half of 2021 was 47500 yuan / ton of lithium oxide, and the average procurement price in the second half of 2021 was 113200 yuan / ton of lithium oxide.
Enhance the production capacity target of 2025, and the diversified layout of lithium resources worldwide is worth looking forward to. In the annual report, the company comprehensively combs the development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Considering the current rapid growth of lithium product demand, the company plans to accelerate the capacity expansion of lithium compound and lithium resource projects and form a lithium product supply capacity with an annual output of 300000 tons of LCE in 2025. ① it is expected to lay a good foundation for the company to upgrade its capacity at the lithium end in the second half of 20222022; ② Cauchari is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2022; ③ Mariana has carried out plant construction; ④ The first phase of Sonora project plans to build an annual capacity of 50000 tons of lithium hydroxide; ⑤ Yiliping Salt Lake has an annual capacity of 10000 tons of lithium carbonate; ⑥ Goulamina project now plans to produce 500000 tons of lithium concentrate in phase I; ⑦ Participate in Jintai potash fertilizer and underwrite 70% of its products; ⑧ Underwrite 75000 tons of lithium concentrate per year in the Finniss project under corelithium and intend to participate in corelithium; ⑨ The actual controller holds 70% equity of Mengjin mining; ⑩ Indirectly owns the songshugang tantalum niobium mine project.
Risk tip: the construction progress of the project does not meet the expectations, and the production and sales of lithium salt products do not meet the expectations.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. The profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 42.759/49.759/57.583 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 283.1% / 16.4% / 15.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 138.41/165.84/21.433 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 164.7% / 19.8% / 29.2%; Diluted EPS is 9.63/11.54/14.91 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponds to PE is 13 / 11 / 8x. Considering that the company is the world’s best lithium industry company, its capacity expands against the trend at the bottom of the industry, and has built a closed-loop lithium ecosystem, it is expected that the prosperity of global new energy vehicles is expected to maintain and maintain the “buy” rating in the future.
