\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
Event:
Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 10.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 170.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 911 million, a year-on-year increase of + 327.59%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 808 million, a year-on-year increase of + 404.73%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 4.008 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 50.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 362 million yuan, a month on month increase of + 59.08%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 339 million, a month on month increase of + 65.74%. The company’s performance in 2021 is in line with expectations.
Key investment points:
Deep binding with key customers, customer structure optimization, and sales volume is expected to continue to increase. The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to specify that the company will be the first supplier of ternary cathode powder from 2022 to 2025. At the same time, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , honeycomb energy, Weilai automobile, satellite blue battery and other important customers have also signed strategic cooperation agreements with the company one after another; Overseas customers such as skon, SDI, northvolt, ACC and saft have also launched various types of cooperation. In the field of small power, the company has established cooperation with customers such as ATL and Tianpeng energy. With the continuous improvement of product competitiveness, the customer structure of the company is gradually optimized.
The layout of high nickel and ultra-high nickel is leading, the pace of research and development of sodium electric cathode is accelerated, and the technical advantage is remarkable. In 2021, the sales volume of medium and high nickel series 8, 9 and NCA exceeded 50000 tons, and the sales volume of high nickel accounted for more than 96%. The pure high nickel standard was produced in batches. The ultra-high nickel cathode material passed the certification of some customers outside China, and was supplied in batches to Chinese cylindrical battery manufacturers and ton solid battery manufacturers. The positive sodium ion battery enters the pilot test stage.
Integrated layout, capacity expansion and both volume and profit. In 2021, the company shipped 52300 tons of ternary cathode materials, a year-on-year increase of + 99.27%. Among them, the net profit of Q4 per ton is expected to exceed 17000 yuan. The main reasons for the increase of net profit per ton are: ① the self supply rate of precursors was improved and the cost was effectively reduced. During the reporting period, single crystal and polycrystalline high nickel precursors achieved large-scale production and successfully entered the high-end power battery industry chain. In 2021, the output of precursors increased by 200% year-on-year, and the self supply rate to the positive electrode increased to about 30%. ② The scale effect of sales volume improvement dilutes the period cost, which is 6.9% in Q4, a decrease of 1.3pct compared with 5.6% in Q3. ③ The inventory income brought by the upward price of lithium carbonate may also contribute. Since Q4, the unit price of lithium hydroxide has increased significantly. The company reported an inventory of 800 million yuan in the interim report and 1.29 billion yuan in the third quarter report. The increase in sales is mainly due to the support of capacity expansion under abundant orders. It is expected that the company will build a capacity of 90000 tons by the end of the third quarter and 120000 tons by the end of the fourth quarter. With the acceleration of capacity construction in Guizhou, Hubei and South Korea, the capacity is expected to exceed 250000 tons by the end of 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company benefits from the increased penetration of new energy vehicles and the high nickel ternary technology route will continue to grow into the mainstream technology direction of long-life models, resulting in strong demand for high nickel ternary. The company gradually expanded its production and deeply bound major customers such as Ningde and Funeng, driving the growth of the company’s performance. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 30.129 billion yuan / 40.755 billion yuan / 64.145 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.149 billion yuan / 3.064 billion yuan / 4.180 billion yuan. The current PE corresponding to the stock price is 29.16x/20.45x/14.99x, which is rated as “buy (first coverage)”.
Risk tips: risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected sales of new energy vehicles, lower than expected downstream demand, lower than expected capacity expansion, intensified price competition in the industry, etc.
