\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 032 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) )
The company disclosed 2021 annual report:
Annual income: 21.6 billion yuan (YoY + 16%), 1.94 billion yuan (YoY + 5%) attributable to the parent, and 1.86 billion yuan (YoY + 16%) deducted. Q4: the income is 5.9 billion yuan (YoY + 12%), the parent is 700 million yuan (yoy-8%), and the non deduction is 6.45 yuan (YoY + 5%). Dividend: cash dividend of 19.30 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 80%.
Revenue side: Q4 domestic sales are better, and the export base is higher
Domestic sales: yoy + 11% in the whole year, including cooking utensils yoy + 18% and electrical appliances yoy + 10%. In the whole year, the domestic market is a low base and restorative growth, and it has basically recovered to a level similar to that in 19 in 21 years.
Q4 reference SEB China revenue: yoy + 24%. In terms of momentum, Q4 is expected to perform well, with a month on month increase compared with Q2 / 3. Export: yoy + 28% in the whole year, the growth rate of H1 / H2 was 69% / 6% respectively, and the growth rate slowed down under the high base in the second half of the year. The company expects 2022 related exports to be + 10%, and currently 22q1 + 2%.
Profit side: Q4 is expected to increase the investment of expenses
The new standards were applied in the company's 21st Annual Report, and the gross profit margin and sales expense rate decreased in the same direction. Gross profit margin: 23% for the whole year (yoy-3.4pct, in which the impact of standards is - 3PCT, the impact of raw materials is - 0.4pct), 27% (- 2.4pct) for domestic sales and 15% (- 4.7pct) for export sales; Q4 caliber is not comparable due to standard adjustment. Throughout the year, the gross profit margin is not greatly affected by raw materials. The company stabilizes the gross profit margin by increasing the price lock of direct sales + raw materials. Net interest rate: 9% (yoy-0.9pct) for the whole year, and 12% (yoy-2.55pct) for Q4. Q4 is expected to be mainly affected by the increased cost. Calculated according to the sales expense excluding transportation (i.e. ignoring the impact of the standard), the sales expense rate of 21h2 + 1PCT.
Business tracking: the channel reform has achieved remarkable results, and the push back purchase shows confidence
Under the channel reform, the proportion of online and direct sales of the company has increased rapidly. According to SEB, 2021 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) online accounts for 65% (compared with 2019 + 12pct), and online revenue is CAGR + 13% in two years. In the same period, the proportion of direct sales in domestic sales increased to 13% (YoY + 10PCT). The company's new Repurchase: it plans to repurchase 1-2% of the total share capital with its own funds of 470940 million, and the repurchase price shall not exceed 57.96 yuan (the closing price on the announcement day is 50.03 yuan). Among them, 0.37% is used for subsequent equity incentive, and the rest is cancelled.
Investment suggestion: upgrade to buy rating
It is expected that the gross profit margin of related exports will rise first in 22 years, and the profit is expected to bottom out; And the repurchase shows the company's confidence in the bottom judgment and development. The profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be 2.31 and 2.67 billion yuan (the previous value is 2.29 and 2.54 billion yuan), yoy + 19% and + 16%, corresponding to pe18 and 15x. Upgrade the rating to "buy".
Risk tip: export growth slowed down, the expansion of new categories was less than expected, and the growth of original categories slowed down
