\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent was 150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of - 37.7%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 91 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of - 51.7%. 4q21 achieved a revenue of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.9%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 66 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.7%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Key points supporting rating
The marginal improvement continued, and the performance rebounded significantly in the fourth quarter. (1) In the second quarter, the company's short-term performance was affected by various factors such as transformation cost investment and raw material price rise. The company responded in a timely manner, and its performance continued to stabilize and recover in the third and fourth quarters. (2) In the fourth quarter, the revenue was + 24.7% year-on-year and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 37.9% year-on-year. We judged that channel expansion + large-scale increase of new products, reasonable control of fees + recharge of some share based payment fees increased profits. (3) In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 35.7%, with a year-on-year increase of -8.1pct. We judged that it was related to the rise in the price of raw materials, the temporary low gross profit margin of new products and the change of accounting standards. In 2021, the company's sales expense rate, management expense rate and R & D expense rate were -1.9pct, + 0.3pct and -0.2pct respectively. The overall expense rate decreased, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -5.7pct year-on-year.
We have taken the initiative to seek change and achieved initial results in adjustment and transformation. In 2021, the company took the initiative to change and carried out a number of reforms to deal with industry changes. According to the data in the annual report, the transformation effect is beginning to show. (1) The company focuses on core categories. The top three categories of revenue in 2021 are leisure baked snacks, leisure deep-sea snacks and leisure meat and fish products, with growth rates of 11%, 37% and 23% respectively. In addition, the income growth of leisure vegetarian and dried fruit exceeded 35%. (2) The company actively expands channels and accelerates channel sinking. The number of dealers in 2021 was 1749, a year-on-year increase of + 98.8%. The growth rate of the company's e-commerce channel revenue was + 27.1% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue continued to increase.
Outlook: the marginal improvement will continue in 2022, and the performance is expected to achieve rapid growth. (1) In the short term, the impact and change of the epidemic on the sales channels of snack food are still ongoing, and the company is still facing the challenge of adverse factors such as fluctuations in raw material costs. We believe that the marginal improvement in Q3 and Q4 proves that the company has the ability to respond effectively in the face of difficulties. It is expected that the company will continue to adjust and transform in 2022, and the marginal improvement is expected to continue. (2) In the medium and long term, the company will adhere to the development strategy of "multi brand, multi category, all channel, all industry chain and (future) globalization", and realize long-term development by focusing on core categories, accelerating channel sinking and amplifying the cost advantage of supply chain. (3) Considering the low base in 2021 and the improvement expectation for 2022, we judge that the company's performance is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2022.
Valuation
According to the annual report, we revised the previous profit forecast and estimated that the EPS of 22-24 years would be 2.06, 2.78 and 3.55 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 77.0%, + 34.9% and + 27.5%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
New product promotion and channel expansion were less than expected, raw material costs fluctuated, and the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
