\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 323 Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved a revenue of 11.777 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 57.41% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.163 billion yuan, an increase of 10.01%, lower than our expectation. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 2.2 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 1.2% (calculated according to the share price on the day before the disclosure of the annual report).
Solid waste revenue increased by 62.62%, and gas pressure is expected to be favorable. In 2021, the company’s revenue increased by 57.41%, which was mainly due to the production of new solid waste projects, the record high sales volume of natural gas and the increase of average sales price. Among them, the revenue of solid waste was 6.568 billion yuan, an increase of 62.62%, and the net profit was 717 million yuan, accounting for 60.41% of the company’s net profit, which was the main growth point of the company. The main reasons for the lower growth of the company’s net profit than its revenue are as follows: 1) affected by the international gas price rise & gas distribution price limit policy, the gross profit margin decreased by 12.33pct to 5.36% in the second half of the year due to losses. The company has actively promoted the favorable price, and it is expected that the gas profitability will be improved from April. 2) Changes in accounting policies to recognize PPP construction income and costs with low gross profit margin; 3) The profits of some solid waste projects did not meet the expectations, and the provision for asset impairment loss was about 81 million yuan; 4) In the same period last year, it enjoyed about 50 million yuan of preferential subsidies for the epidemic situation and 46 million yuan of garbage transportation subsidies from green power company. Excluding the impact of accounting policies, the net operating cash flow in 2021 is about 2 billion yuan.
The “big solid waste” strategy was steadily implemented, and the horizontal and vertical integration pattern was deeply promoted. By 2021, the company’s waste incineration in hand scale is 34150 tons / day (excluding joint-stock projects), including 25550 tons / day in operation (8300 tons / day in 2021), 5300 tons / day in trial operation + under construction + preparatory projects (2100 tons / day in 2021). The company actively expands the integration of solid waste, vertically focuses on environmental sanitation, and horizontally creates a solid waste industrial park.
Boost the dual carbon goal and actively layout new energy applications. 1) Actively carry out carbon asset management and layout carbon assets in advance. In 2021, the company completed 960000 tons of VCs and 72000 tons of CCER transactions. 2) Build a hydrogen energy integrated application demonstration, start the hydrogen project with an annual output of 2200 tons in 2022, cooperate with the company in the construction and operation of five hydrogen refueling stations (3.5 tons / day) and the application scenario of reserved hydrogen energy sanitation vehicles, and create an integrated mode of hydrogen production, hydrogenation and utilization.
Solid waste industrial park has the first mover advantage, benchmarking “waste free city”, reducing cost and increasing efficiency, and realizing remote replication. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, yowuang promoted the construction of 100 “waste free cities”. The company has built the first comprehensive park of the whole industrial chain of solid waste in China – Nanhai solid waste treatment and environmental protection industrial park, which has the advantages of minimizing the comprehensive social cost and first mover advantage. The comprehensive industrial park can realize cost reduction and efficiency increase through the three advantages of energy synergy, environmental protection facility synergy and treatment and disposal synergy. It has been successfully transplanted and popularized in Shunde, Kaiping and other provinces and cities, accumulated successful experience, and can be replicated and popularized in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that with its excellent horizontal expansion & integration ability, the company is expected to continue to expand and improve its profit scale. Considering that the international energy price continues to rise and the gas business faces great cost pressure, we will reduce the net profit attributable to the parent company from 1.530/1.761 billion yuan to 1.372/1.636 billion yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 1.896 billion yuan. The current market value corresponds to 11 / 9 / 8 times of PE in 20222024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the progress of policy promotion projects is less than expected, the industry competition intensifies, and the policy risk
