\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
The performance has increased slightly under the high base, and roe ranks in the forefront of the industry. 1) In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 34.250 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.48%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.854 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.13%. 2) The company will realize the annual roe 10 in 202165%, a year-on-year increase of 0.05 PCT, 3 PCT higher than the industry average. By the end of the year, the equity multiplier had reached 3.84, an increase of 0.23 over the beginning of the year. 3) The proportion of net income from asset management, brokerage, self operation, interest and investment banking (excluding other businesses) was 34%, 27%, 20%, 17% and 1%, and the proportion of self operation fell sharply 8pct.
Its public offering “double stars shine”, and the share of brokerage and two financial markets remains stable. 1) In 21 years, the company realized an asset management business income of 9.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50.74%. Its e fund and GF fund realized net profits of 4.535 billion yuan and 2.607 billion yuan respectively in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 64.89% and 42.95% respectively. The profit contribution of the two public offerings (converted by share ratio) increased from 16.11% in 20 years to 22.56%. In contrast, GF asset management only realized a net profit of 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 78%, which is expected to be mainly affected by the “oceanwide” incident. 2) In the past 21 years, the market share of the company’s stock based turnover decreased slightly from 3.93% to 3.86%, benefiting from the high activity of the market, and the brokerage income increased by 21.28% year-on-year to 7.97 billion yuan; Among them, the income from selling financial products on a commission basis increased by 85.28% to 1.095 billion yuan. 3) The balance of two financial institutions in 21 years reached 94 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.50% and a market share of 5.13%, driving the net interest income + 15.92% to 4.931 billion yuan.
Proprietary business is the main drag on performance, and investment banking is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. 1) By the end of the 21st century, the company’s financial investment assets had increased by 17.96% over the beginning of the year to 235925 billion yuan; Among them, stocks and funds increased by 126% and 140% over the beginning of the year to 21.1 billion yuan and 50.4 billion yuan, accounting for 9% and 21% from 5% and 11%. In 21 years, the company realized self operated income of 5.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 15.39%. It seems that the performance of self-management is expected to be the main drag on the performance of self-management in the 21st year after taking office. 2) Although the company’s investment banking qualification has returned to normal for one year, there is a long cycle for the reserve and performance release of investment banking customers and project resources, resulting in only 433 million yuan of investment banking revenue in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 33.31%. We believe that the investment banking business of the company will probably recover quarter by quarter and is expected to see a significant improvement in 22 years.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Fine tune the brokerage market share and other indicators according to the annual report, adjust the predicted value of BVPs from 14.96/16.25 to 15.01/16.36 yuan in 22-23 years, and add 18.0 yuan in 24 years. Sotp segment Valuation: 1) large asset management uses PE valuation of comparable companies, and 20% valuation premium is given for high growth, corresponding to 28xpe and RMB 88.8 billion; 2) Other segments are valued at 0.9xpb, corresponding to 103.9 billion yuan. Adjust the target price to 25.28 yuan and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
The impact of the policy on the industry exceeded expectations; The dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and valuation.
