\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 180 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) )
Performance review
On March 31, 2022, the company issued an annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 152.36%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company and non deduction were -721 million yuan and -884 million yuan respectively. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in technology licensing and franchise revenue and the sales of treprizumab in China. The performance is in line with expectations.
Comments
Covid-19 has been launched rapidly, from post exposure prevention to comprehensive attack on mild and moderate diseases (all age group). Covid-19 has an income of more than 2 billion in 2021; Covid-19 small molecules vv116 and vv993 are ready to go. (1) According to the total revenue, PD-1 revenue and milestone payments of Lilly and coherus disclosed in the annual report, it can be calculated that the sales commission of covid-19 neutralizing antibody of the company after listing in the United States has exceeded 1 billion yuan; In addition to Lilly’s milestone payment of nearly $200 million, in 2021, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) earned more than $2 billion on covid-19 neutralizing antibody. (2) The company’s covid-19 small molecule research and development is also in a clinical leading position in China. Vv116 is the oral deuterated version of redcivir. In 2021, vv116 became the first covid-19 small molecule oral drug approved for emergency use in Uzbekistan; At present, it is in the global multi center phase 3 clinic and has completed the administration of the first Chinese subject. (3) Another vv993 is a small molecule drug with the same target as Pfizer paxlovid for 3CL protein inhibition, but it does not need ritonavir and can take effect alone.
PD-1 suffered a short-term setback, the commercialization team was rebuilt, the approval of China’s major indications and American indications for nasopharyngeal carcinoma is in sight, the expansion of China US market and indications, and the inflection point of sales curve is imminent. (1) In 2021, the company sold 412 million yuan of PD-1 monoclonal antibody. ① After the substantial price reduction in 2021 and entering the medical insurance, the company compensated the price difference of all the inventory of dealers. ② The company’s commercialization team experienced several rounds of adjustment and running in. ③ Now Mr. Li Cong is fully responsible for commercialization and adjustment. (2) The catalysts of PD-1 in 2022 include: ① approved: PD-1, nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the United States, non-small cell lung cancer in China; ② New indications of PD-1 submitted for listing: Sino US first-line treatment of small cell lung cancer and liver cancer, postoperative adjuvant therapy, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the United States; ③ Data readout: multiple new indications of PD-1.
Continuous investment in R & D, with a fixed increase of nearly 4 billion, has added more help to enrich the pipeline’s development period. In 2021, the company spent nearly 2.1 billion yuan on R & D and has 108 patents; Treprizumab has carried out more than 30 clinical trials with more than 15 indications in various countries. It has not only the global original research target BTLA project, but also many cutting-edge technologies such as mRNA. The company’s upcoming fixed increase of nearly 4 billion will also help accelerate R & D.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We maintain the company’s profit forecast. The company’s sales revenue in 2022 / 23 / 24 is 31.5/45.9/7.563 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is -285123/866 million yuan. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risks such as R & D process, sales volume not meeting expectations after entering medical insurance and lifting of the ban on restricted shares
