\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 541 Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) )
The non deduction performance is slightly higher than the express, and is optimistic about the medium and long-term growth
Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) 21fy achieved revenue of 19.5 billion yuan, yoy + 45%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.15 billion yuan, yoy + 44%, deducted non performance of 860 million yuan, yoy + 41%, slightly higher than the previous performance express. The CFO of the company was RMB 200 million in 21 years, and the net inflow was RMB 160 million in 20 years. We speculate that the company may continue to increase its raw material reserves in Q4. In 21 years, the company sold 3.18 million tons, yoy + 28.7%, and the output was 3.387 million tons, yoy + 35%. There was a large increase in inventory and self consumption. We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term growth of the company. It is estimated that the performance in 22-24 years will be 14 / 17.5/2.03 billion yuan, corresponding to pe16.5 billion yuan 6 / 13.3 / 11.4x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The year-on-year trend of capacity utilization was maintained, and the net profit per ton increased year-on-year
The capacity utilization rate calculated by sales volume of 21fy company is 81%, with a year-on-year increase of about 4pct. We calculate that the company’s net profit per ton of 21fy is about 268 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 33 yuan / ton, which is higher than expected. The reasons are as follows: 1) the increase of capacity utilization rate can theoretically increase the net profit per ton; 2) The average price of scrap steel rose sharply in 21 years, which may have a positive impact on the net profit per ton due to the company’s control over the time point of raw material procurement; 3) The provision for bad debt of receivables of 21fy company is relatively small (21fy26 million yuan, 20fy84 million yuan). We expect that the company’s 22-year average production capacity is expected to reach about 4.6 million tons, and the sales volume is expected to reach about 4 million tons. The capacity utilization rate may continue to rise by about 5pct, which is expected to continue to drive the company’s net profit up.
The management ability is still improving, and the cash flow decreases slightly
The company’s 21fy sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rate has a year-on-year change of + 0.05 / – 0.23 / + 0.03 / + 0.13pct, which is relatively stable. The sales expense rate brought by the sales system reform has been more obvious in the past years, while the management expense side continues to reflect the company’s scale effect. The net outflow of CFO of 21fy company, with a year-on-year decrease of 7pct compared with 97.79%, may be related to the relative shortage of funds in the construction industry chain in the second half of last year, and the higher expenditure may be related to the company’s increase in material procurement (the increment of 21fy inventory goods and revolving materials is higher than that of 20fy). We believe that the company’s overall operation is stable. Under the good business model, with the recovery of the industry, the company’s cash flow is expected to rebound to a better level.
Optimistic about medium and long-term growth and maintain the “buy” rating
The target production capacity of the company is 5 million tons in 22 years and 4.2 million tons at the end of 21 years. The production expansion speed in 21 years is slightly slower than the market expectation, but the production expansion speed in 22 years is expected to increase, and the production release speed in the first half of the year is expected to be faster, which supports the annual output. Considering that the production expansion rate in 21 years is slightly slower than the market expectation, we expect eps2 in 22-24 years The company is expected to benefit from the steady growth of affordable housing in 202323 (eps2.50) and 202323 (eps2.50) β， oneself α It also continues to reflect that the double increase of output and net profit per ton is expected to continue to be realized. At present, the comparable company’s 22-year wind unanimously expects pe16 times. The company’s business model and cost control ability are significantly better than the industry average. It is given 25 times PE in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 66 yuan, and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the continuous rise of steel price has a greater impact on profits than expected; The improvement rate of the company’s capacity utilization is lower than expected; The new supply of the industry exceeded expectations.
