\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 186 China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) )
The company announced 21fy annual report that 21fy's revenue was 1020 billion, yoy + 12.0% (compared with 19fycagr + 10.8%); Net profit attributable to parent company is 24.7 billion, yoy + 10.3% (compared with 19fycagr + 10.6%); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 22.4 billion, yoy + 9.1% (compared with 19fycagr + 10.7%). The single 21q4 income is 284.5 billion, yoy-0.6% (compared with 19q4cagr + 2.8%), the net profit attributable to the parent is 6.8 billion, yoy-9.3% (compared with 19q4cagr + 11.3%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent is 5.9 billion, yoy-12.1% (compared with 19q4cagr + 12.5%). 21q4 revenue growth and profitability are under pressure, which is judged as a phased impact, and we continue to be optimistic about the growth toughness and sustainability of the company.
The newly signed growth is resilient, and real estate risks affect 21q4 income growth and profitability
The revenue of 21q1-4 was cagr22.5% higher than that of 19q1-4 0% / 14.0% / 8.9% / 2.8%), it is speculated that the epidemic situation and real estate risk events have a certain impact on the promotion of 21q4 project. In terms of business, the revenue of 21fy engineering contracting / survey and design consulting / industrial manufacturing / real estate development / material logistics is 893.8/194219/50.7 billion respectively, yoy + 9.9% / 5.2% / 18.4% / 23.8% (compared with 19fycagr + 11.1% / 3.6% / 9.9% / 10.8% / 20.1%). The newly signed contract amount of 21fy is 2819.7 billion, yoy + 10.4%, of which the newly signed project contracting / non project contracting is 241.5/409.1 billion and yoy + 8.5% / 22.7% respectively. The railway in project contracting increased by 30.2% year-on-year to 376.5 billion, and the newly signed non project contracts continued to increase, of which the logistics material business is 21fyyoy + 51.1% to 181.9 billion. At the end of 21fy, the outstanding contract amount of the company was 4.9 trillion, yoy + 12.4%, which was 4.8 times the income of 21fy. There were abundant orders on hand and the income was well guaranteed.
21fy company's comprehensive gross profit margin is 9.6%, yoy + 0.3pct, of which 21q4 gross profit margin is 12.3%, yoy + 2.0pct. The gross profit margin of 21fy project contracting is 7.9%, yoy + 0.7pct, which promotes the change of project structure or is the main disturbance. The expense rate is generally stable, and there is a great drag on the impairment stage (21fy accrues impairment yoy + 165% to 9.9 billion, mainly due to more impairment for real estate risks, including asset impairment loss yoy + 55% to 1.6 billion, credit risk impairment loss yoy + 206% to 8.3 billion, including 4.6 billion for receivables of a real estate customer), and the change of fair value also has an impact. 21fy net profit attributable to the parent company is 24.7 billion, yoy + 10.3%, of which 21q4 net profit attributable to the parent company is 6.8 billion, yoy-9.3%. The net interest rate of 21fy attributable to the parent company was 2.4%, basically unchanged year-on-year. The net interest rate of single 21q4 attributable to the parent company was 2.4%, yoy-0.2pct.
The turnover of the two funds continued to accelerate, the asset structure continued to be optimized, and the cash flow stage was under pressure
At the end of 21fy, the company's asset liability ratio was 74.4%, with a decrease of 0.4pct; The interest bearing debt ratio was 22.8%, with a decrease of 0.4pct; The turnover of two funds (inventory + contract assets + accounts receivable) continued to accelerate. The turnover days of two funds in 21fy were 173 days and yoy-37 days (25 days shorter than 19fy). The net operating cash flow of 21fy increased by 47.4 billion (vs20fy net inflow of 1 billion) to 7.3 billion, and the net investment cash flow increased by 10.8 billion (vs20fy net outflow of 1.3 billion) to 61.1 billion.
Benefiting from steady growth, we are optimistic about the sustainability and resilience of the growth in the 14th five year plan and maintain the "buy" rating
Central enterprises benefit from the advantages of qualification and construction capacity, and their medium and long-term share may continue to increase. They are optimistic about the high-quality growth sustainability and toughness of railway construction in the 14th five year plan; Economic pressure, optimistic about the upward elasticity of infrastructure investment, the company benefits. We estimate that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is 29.1/34.1/38.2 billion (based on more cautious impairment estimation, it is slightly lower than the previous forecast in 22 / 23 years, and the previous value is 30.4/35.1 billion yuan respectively), and yoy is 18% / 17% / 12% respectively. Recognized the company's 22-year 6x target PE, slightly lowered the target price to 12.85 yuan (the previous value was 13.41 yuan), and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of infrastructure investment is lower than expected, and the advantage is weakened due to the limited expansion of central enterprise projects
