\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 877 Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) )
Key investment points:
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 10.921 billion yuan, exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 16.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 677 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.99%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 520 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.26%.
Affected by the epidemic in the second half of the year, the performance was less than expected. By quarter, Q1-Q4 achieved operating revenue of RMB 2.670 billion, 2.345 billion, 2.394 billion and 3.512 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 93.10%, + 27.82%, + 3.92% and - 9.16% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 203, 208, 143 and 123 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 222225%, + 85.52%, - 24.66% and - 69.33% respectively. In the second half of the year, affected by the epidemic, the offline terminal consumption slowed down, and the performance slowed down significantly from the third quarter. The company's sales expenses increased significantly (mainly due to the increase of spokesmen, which led to the increase of publicity expenses) and did not achieve the expected effect of driving revenue. In addition, primary expenses such as Henan disaster donation increased the pressure on the cost side of the company, resulting in the decline of net profit attributable to the parent faster than the operating revenue.
Continuously optimize the channel structure. In terms of sub channels, the company's direct channels account for a relatively high proportion. In 2021, the company accelerated the development of franchise stores and the closure of inefficient stores, and continued to optimize the channel structure. In 2021, the number of direct / franchise stores of the company will be 1616 / 3598 respectively, and the net expansion stores will be 62 / 536 respectively. It is estimated that the direct channel will be the trend of net closure in 2022, and the franchise channel is expected to continue the trend in 2021, with a net expansion of Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) stores.
The cost is expected to be optimized. In 2021, the company's sales expenses and management expenses increased by 20.65% and 23.20% respectively year-on-year. The increase in sales expenses is mainly due to the increase in salary and store expenses caused by the growth of sales scale, and the increase in advertising expenses caused by the company's increased investment in brand publicity; The increase in administrative expenses is mainly due to the increase in employee compensation, management consulting fees and depreciation expenses of the headquarters building. The substantial increase of publicity expenses in 2021 did not bring the expected revenue pulling effect. At the same time, the company has conducted a lot of consultation, and the effect needs to be verified. It is expected that the company will strengthen the control of the cost end from 2022 and rationally look at the actual effect of cost investment.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the company's expense side increased significantly, but did not achieve the expected effect. At the same time, due to the external influence such as epidemic and weather and the internal influence such as the company's goods structure, the performance in the fourth quarter was less than expected. In the future, the company is expected to learn from experience, strengthen goods structure and channel management, strengthen expense control, and have some performance repair space. Adjusting the company's profit forecast, it is estimated that the company will realize an operating revenue of RMB 124.15/140.29/15.514 billion, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 8529471073 million and EPS of RMB 1.79/1.99/2.25/share respectively from 2022 to 2024. Considering that the weak end consumption and repeated epidemic have a certain impact on offline channel sales, the company will be given 12-14 times of PE in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable price range of RMB 21.48-25.06, and the company will be given the rating of "prudent recommendation".
Risk tip: the macro economy is down, and the terminal consumption is lower than expected.
