\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 985 Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) )
Event: the company released its annual performance report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 64.961 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 24.27%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 4.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.82%, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 4.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.82%, and the basic earnings per share was 2.04 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%.
The volume and price of the coal sector rose simultaneously, driving the growth of net profit. The coal sector achieved an operating revenue of 15.921 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 40.52%. In terms of output, it achieved a coal output of 22.575 million tons (4.12%); In terms of sales volume, in 2021, the company sold a total of 19.759 million tons of commercial coal (- 8.87%), including 6.478 million tons of thermal coal (2.66%) and 3.628 million tons of Slime (4.82%). In terms of sales unit price, the comprehensive selling price of commercial coal is 805.78 yuan / ton (21.21%). In terms of cost, the cost of self-produced commercial coal was 476.5 yuan / ton (21.54%), with a year-on-year increase of 168 yuan / ton, mainly due to the increase of material price, employee salary and other costs. The company’s gross profit per ton of commercial coal was 329.27 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a gross profit margin of 40.86% (a decrease of 0.16 percentage points). The year-on-year increase of coal unit price became the main reason for the profit growth of the sector. This year, the coking coal market pattern is still tight. The company’s high-quality coking coal continues to maintain a high price increase and is optimistic about the continued profitability in the future.
The price of coal chemical industry has increased significantly year-on-year, and the methanol production capacity is expected to increase by 200000 tons this year. In 2021, the operating revenue of the coal chemical industry sector of the company was 12.596 billion yuan (46.52%), and the operating cost was 7.561 billion yuan (50.54%). In terms of output, it has produced 4.0964 million tons of coke (- 0.66%), sold 4.0758 million tons of coke (- 1.3%), and the average sales price is 264572 yuan / ton (49.36%); The production of methanol is 342700 tons (- 9.86%), the sales of methanol is 344400 tons (10.27%), and the average sales price is 225933 yuan / ton (43.49%). The year-on-year increase in the price of chemical products is the key to the profit growth of the chemical sector. The coke oven gas comprehensive utilization project under construction by the company is expected to be put into operation in June 2022, which will increase the annual output of methanol by about 200000 tons.
A large proportion of cash dividends highlight the investment value: according to the announcement, the company’s profit distribution in 2021 is based on the total share capital registered on the date of equity distribution. It plans to distribute cash dividends of 7.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares and 1.737 billion yuan (including tax), accounting for 36.33% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in that year. Calculated according to the current stock price, the dividend rate is 4.4%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 6.415/72.39/7.932 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 6.02/5.3/4.87 times. The first coverage gives the company a buy rating.
Risk tip: coal demand slows down, coal prices fall more than expected, and production capacity advances slowly.
