\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 800 China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) )
The company announced 21fy annual report, with annual revenue of 685.6 billion, yoy + 9%, 11% higher than 19fycagr; Net profit attributable to parent company is 18 billion, yoy + 11%, which is – 5% compared with 19fycagr. The corresponding 21q4 company’s revenue is 169.4 billion, yoy-22%, which is – 3% higher than 19q4cagr; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 3 billion yuan, yoy-51%, which is – 33% compared with 19q4cagr that of the parent company. The performance was slightly lower than expected.
21q4 income and profitability are under pressure, and it is speculated that most of them are disturbed by phased factors
In terms of business, the revenue from infrastructure construction / infrastructure design / dredging business of 21fy company is 6074 / 47.6/42.9 billion respectively, and yoy is + 9% / 19% / 12% respectively. The growth rate of 21h2 slows down to a certain extent, and Q4 revenue growth stage is under great pressure. It is speculated that it is mainly due to the weak intensity of phased infrastructure investment and the impact of real estate risk events on the promotion rhythm of some projects. The newly signed contracts continued to grow rapidly. The newly signed contracts of 21fy Company amounted to 1.27 trillion, yoy + 19%; At the end of 21fy, the company’s total orders on hand were 3.13 trillion, 4.6 times the annual revenue, supporting the sustainability of revenue growth.
21fy company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 12.5%, yoy-0.5pct; Among them, 21q4 is 15.4%, yoy + 1.4pct. In terms of business, the gross profit margin of infrastructure construction / infrastructure design / dredging business of 21fy company is 11.3% / 18.0% / 13.8% respectively, yoy is – 0.5 / – 0.1 / – 1.7pct respectively. The gross profit margin of 21h2 overall and main business is slightly better than 21h1. The gross profit margin of 21fy is under pressure year-on-year or mainly due to the slight change of project structure, and the overall profit stability is good. Cost control continued to improve. The net interest rate of 21fy company was 3.4%, yoy + 0.3pct, of which the net interest rate of 21q4 was 2.9%, yoy-0.6pct, which was dragged down by the weak stage of 21q4 revenue growth. The interest expense of perpetual bonds has increased the impact on minority shareholders’ profits and losses. The net interest rates of 21fy and 21q4 are 2.6% and 1.8% respectively, yoy + 0.0 and – 1.0pct respectively.
The distribution of investment projects has increased, the loss of concession assets has narrowed, and there has been important progress in REITs
At the end of 21fy, the company’s total contracted investment estimate for BOT projects was 510.4 billion (YoY + 75.7 billion / + 17%), and the cumulative completed investment amount was 223.6 billion, accounting for 43.8%; The number of consolidated and equity participation projects entering the operation period is 27 and 19 respectively, which is + 3 and + 7 respectively compared with the end of 20fy. The franchise revenue of 21fy was 7.8 billion, yoy + 51% (compared with 19fycagr + 11%), and the net loss was 1.7 billion (vs20fy and 19fy had net losses of 4.4 billion and 2.6 billion respectively), which was significantly narrowed compared with the previous period. With the continuous increase of operation projects in the mature period, it is speculated that the benefit of franchise operation business may be improved or sustained. The construction of REITs market is accelerated. The Jiatong Expressway (with a total final investment of 8.8 billion, open to traffic in 16 years, a charging period of 30 years and a total length of about 91 kilometers) held by the company in the early stage plans to land in the public offering REITs market (the 22 / 03 / 23 project has been approved by the CSRC), which is of great significance to the revitalization of the company’s franchise assets, the optimization of the term structure and the discovery of value. The newly signed investment projects of 21fy company have confirmed the contract value of 218.1 billion, yoy + 23%, of which the proportion of urban comprehensive development projects with short cycle is yoy + 32pct to 48%, BOT projects is yoy-1% to 26%, and the proportion of government paid projects is significantly reduced. The intensity of layout investment projects is maintained, the proportion of short-term investment projects is increased, and the layout strategy is more pragmatic.
It is suggested to pay attention to the revaluation opportunity of the company’s operating assets and maintain the “buy” rating
Based on the more conservative expectation of the profit margin of the infrastructure construction business, the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 was slightly reduced to 20.7/23.3 billion (the previous value was 23.8/26.7 billion), the new 24-year forecast was 26.2 billion, and the 22-24 years yoy were + 15% / 13% / 12% respectively. The business structure determines that the company will benefit more from stable growth, and the REITs of the first single project has made important progress, which may help the revaluation of the company’s operating assets, maintain the company’s 22-year 10.5x target PE, reduce the company’s target price to 13.41 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: infrastructure investment is weaker than expected, impairment risk, and the landing rhythm and implementation of REITs supporting policies are lower than expected
