At a time when countries have successively given a timetable for "carbon neutrality", the role of renewable energy has become indispensable.
Recently, the report "smart electrification of renewable energy: promoting the transformation of energy services" released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) in conjunction with the State Grid of China shows that in order to control the global average temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius, the electrification of energy system will be the top priority in the medium and short term.
global energy use change
According to the report, in the process of global energy use change from 1800 to 2019, the dominant global energy use is traditional biomass, that is, the energy form Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) stored in biomass in the form of chemical energy, such as firewood, straw, straw, rice husk and other agricultural production wastes and livestock manure. Because this energy form comes directly or indirectly from the photosynthesis of green plants, it can be easily transformed into conventional solid, liquid and gaseous fuels.
Followed by more familiar traditional energy sources such as coal and oil. In contrast, the proportion of renewable energy such as hydrogen, wind and hydropower is not large. However, a considerable trend is that after entering the 20th century, especially in the second half of the 20th century, the proportion of traditional biomass energy in global energy use began to gradually decrease, gradually slowing down from 100% to less than 10% in 2019. Similarly, the use proportion of coal and oil has also begun to decrease, and the use proportion of renewable energy represented by wind energy and hydrogen energy has sprung up.
Gunnar luderer, a researcher at the Potsdam climate impact Institute, believes that for a long time, fossil fuels have become the first choice for power generation because of their low price and easy availability. However, the cost of renewable power generation, especially photovoltaic power generation based on Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) is now falling rapidly, which has been underestimated by most climate models to date. This progress can fundamentally change the energy structure. According to the results of computer simulation combined with the global carbon price, green power will become the cheapest form of energy by 2050, which can supply three-quarters of the energy demand.
renewable energy power generation needs to be increased
According to the objectives of the Paris Agreement, by 2050, global fossil energy consumption must decline by more than 75%, and the proportion of renewable energy in global primary energy consumption should increase to 74%. At the same time, countries around the world also promised to "strive to limit the rise of global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius of the average temperature before industrialization".
The international renewable energy agency believes that it is technically feasible to limit the global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius, but the global energy system must undergo a huge change to replace the existing system based on fossil energy.
According to the data of the International Renewable Energy Agency, by 2020, countries had invested a total of $5.9 trillion in clean energy. Half of this investment ($3 trillion) is focused on improving energy use, while the real investment in renewable energy is only $1.5 trillion. Another $1.3 trillion was spent on infrastructure and electrification reform. The International Renewable Energy Agency predicts that from 2021 to 2023, the international community's investment in renewable energy will increase at an average annual rate of $2 trillion.
What impact will these new capital investments have on the use of global renewable energy? The international renewable energy agency believes that with the field of renewable energy becoming the darling of investors, the use of renewable energy will rise from 18% of the total energy consumption in 2015 to two-thirds in 2050 in the reform of the energy system.
"Today, 80% of the energy demand for industrial, transportation or building heating is directly met through combustion - mainly the combustion of fossil fuels - and only 20% depends on electricity. Research shows that this situation will be reversed by 2050. Decarbonized electricity may become a pillar of the global energy supply, making emission reduction targets easier to achieve." Ruder said. According to the prediction of the International Renewable Energy Agency, to step up the implementation of the decarbonization target in 2050, the proportion of renewable energy in the power sector will increase from less than 5% in 2015 to more than 30%.
how to realize electrification of renewable energy
According to the world energy transformation outlook report 2021 previously released by the International Renewable Energy Agency, power consumption will more than double by 2050, accounting for more than 50% of the world's final energy consumption. Therefore, the pace of renewable energy electrification must be further accelerated to meet the greater global demand for clean electricity by 2050.
According to the above report of intelligent electrification of renewable energy, the energy consumption in 20172050 under the intelligent electrification scenario is much lower than that under the "benchmark scenario" over time, even during the peak energy consumption in 2030. Moreover, by 2050, thanks to intelligent electrification, energy consumption will basically fall from the peak to the initial value in 2017.
Then, in the process of intelligent electrification of renewable energy, electricity from high-carbon fossil fuels will continue to be replaced by clean and low-carbon electricity generated by Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , wind energy, hydrogen energy and other renewable energy.
Among different types of renewable energy power generation, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic (30%) and wind energy (24%) technologies with relatively low volatility and low cost are expected to account for most of the global power generation. Moreover, as energy end use shifts from fossil fuels to electricity, electrification of energy services will become more common.
According to the above report, digital technology is crucial to the realization of energy transformation and is a key link in expanding renewable energy power generation and popularizing electrification. The deployment of intelligent digital devices, information and communication technology (ICT) and related operation practices are aimed at meeting the power demand of renewable energy in a more flexible way, optimizing the power delivery and use process, and providing more efficient power services.
For each energy consumption terminal, there is still a lot of room for the intelligent electrification of renewable energy in the future. Take the construction sector as an example. At present, the annual energy consumption is as high as 122 AI joules (EJ, AI is the 18th power of 10), accounting for about 30% of the global terminal energy consumption. Among them, more than half of the energy is provided by natural gas, oil, coal or biomass energy, and electricity accounts for about 24% of the energy consumption of residential buildings, mainly for commercial and public buildings. Therefore, the report believes that in the future, heating through electric heaters and cooking with electric ovens and electric ovens, or using fuels such as hydrogen or synthetic methane produced by renewable electricity to supply domestic and commercial buildings through natural gas pipe network will contribute to the intelligent electrification of the construction industry.
The same is true for the transportation industry. At present, the annual energy consumption of the global transportation sector, including highway, railway, shipping and aviation, is as high as 121 AIJ, which is second only to the construction industry, but only about 1% of the energy is supplied by electricity. Therefore, the report believes that there is an urgent need to realize the electrification of energy in the field of transportation, such as using renewable electricity to produce hydrogen to power fuel cell vehicles or long-distance transportation trains, or using renewable electricity to produce syngas or hydrogen derivatives to replace fossil fuels in energy intensive freight and long-distance transportation industries.
The industrial sector (119 Aijiao) ranks third in energy consumption, of which about 28% of energy is supplied by electricity. Only four energy intensive industrial products, namely cement, steel, chemical products ammonia and ethylene, account for about 60% of industrial energy consumption. Therefore, it is urgent to realize higher energy consumption electrification in the industrial field.
The report emphasizes that using renewable energy to realize intelligent electrification is the priority development direction in the future, but it also needs to deal with the challenges brought by supply shortage, load imbalance or more flexible power generation.
