panel overview
Thursday morning, A-share differentiation, the Shanghai index rose and fell, and the gem fluctuated and corrected. On the disk, real estate, public utilities, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, cement building materials, decoration, banking, chemical pharmacy, medical services, engineering construction, biological products, engineering consulting services, medical devices and other industries led the rise; Energy metal, photovoltaic, battery, wind power, aerospace, semiconductor, power supply equipment, tourism hotels, chemical fertilizer and other industries led the decline. In terms of theme stocks, dexamethasone, vitamins, hair medicine, heparin concept, CRO, Binhai New Area and vaccine cold chain led the rise; Blade battery, solid-state battery, lithium extraction from Salt Lake, sodium ion battery, virtual power plant, power battery recycling, fluorochemical industry, hit battery, energy storage, etc.
message surface
central bank: increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply of soybeans and oil
The people’s Bank of China issued the opinions on financial support in 2022 and comprehensively promoting the key work of rural revitalization, proposing to increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supplies such as soybeans and oil. Focusing on promoting the increase of soybean and oil production and the supply of “vegetable basket” products, optimize the allocation of credit resources and continue to increase credit investment.
put 550 billion yuan in 4 days and turn on full power for “water replenishment” at the end of the quarter
On March 30, the people’s Bank of China continued to carry out 150 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and launched 100 billion level investment for four consecutive working days to protect the liquidity at the end of the quarter. In the view of insiders, the people’s Bank of China has significantly increased its open market operation recently, highlighting its attitude of maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity. In this case, the capital is expected to be stable and cross quarter.
Bureau of Statistics: the official manufacturing PMI in March was 49.5%
In March, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.5%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point; The PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point.
Jufeng viewpoint
Pre trading judgment: after yesterday’s trading, CNOOC issued 2.99 billion new shares, which was approved. The European and American stock markets made a slight correction overnight. It is expected that the A shares will open slightly lower. If the technology stocks can continue to rebound, the market sentiment may be reversed and the upward space may be opened; On the contrary, it will continue to maintain the concussion trend of the box.
The three major A-share indexes opened lower collectively. The real estate sector that rose sharply on Wednesday was divided. Vanke’s performance was expected to be reduced by 3.5%, but there were still 10 shares with the daily limit, and the leading stock Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) was on the word board.
After the opening, the stock index fluctuated lower, and the cement building materials, engineering construction, real estate and traditional Chinese medicine sectors strengthened. The PMI data released in March further stimulated the expectation of “steady growth”; The track stocks with strong performance on Wednesday, such as photovoltaic, battery and wind power, were at the forefront of the decline list. Therefore, the market appears obvious differentiation. While technology stocks fell sharply, driving the gem index down nearly 2%, bank stocks rose to protect the market, and the decline of the stock index slowed down. In the afternoon, we still need to pay attention to the performance of technology stocks. If we can’t stop the decline, it may mean that the short-term rebound has approached the high point, and the market will callback again.
Recently, we have repeatedly stressed that “the current market is not sustainable. The Shanghai index has built a 3000 ~ 3300 point box and the gem has built a 2450 ~ 2750 point box. We should dare to cash in the sudden rise of individual stocks. For individual stocks that have fallen sharply but have not changed their fundamentals, we can buy low. Before the track stocks stop falling, even if the market rebounds, the upward space will not be opened.”
Investment advice: at present, the impact of the situation in Ukraine and the Fed’s interest rate hike, which suppress the sentiment of A-share investors, has been weakened. Many ministries and commissions have taken targeted measures to stabilize market expectations and boost market confidence, which will accelerate the construction of the market bottom. In the future, A-Shares will rebound in the form of building a box. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: first, companies with quarterly growth exceeding expectations; Second, it benefits from the steady growth of new and old infrastructure; Third, aviation, airport, tourism and other sectors facing the inflection point in the post epidemic era.
